CHAPTER 1
Introduction
1.1 Introduction:
The
people over the world are facing great risk due to climate change. The
impacts of climate change are felt most by the Southern countries, as a
majority of its people is poor and vulnerable to and susceptible to
risks. Since the past few years, countries in the North like Germany (flood), France and Scotland
(heat wave) are also confronting extreme events. Such events are likely
to increase all over the world and will become threatening and
dangerous for the survival and even existence of many climate sensitive
plant and animal species. Climate change is already happening and
represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic
threats facing the planet. The European Union is committed to working
constructively for a global agreement to control climate change, and is
leading the way by taking ambitious action of its own. The warming of
the climate system is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global mean sea level. The Earth's average surface
temperature has risen by 0.76° C since 1850 (Agarwal, 2008). Most of the
warming that has occurred over the last 50 years is very likely to have
been caused by human activities. In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4),
published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projects that, without further action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by a
further 1.8-4.0°C this century, and by up to 6.4°C in the worst case
scenario (IPCC,2007).
Projected
global warming this century is likely to trigger serious consequences
for mankind and other life forms, including a rise in sea levels of
between 18 and 59 cm which will endanger coastal areas and small
islands, and a greater frequency and severity of extreme weather events
(Wallington, 2oo5)
Human
activities that contribute to climate change include in particular the
burning of fossil fuels, agriculture and land-use changes like
deforestation. These cause emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main
gas responsible for climate change, as well as of other 'greenhouse'
gases. To bring climate change to a halt, global greenhouse gas
emissions must be reduced significantly.
This
is the time to take action to mitigate the green house gas emission.
Who takes this action, this question create very much controversy among
different countries especially among developed and developing countries.
This controversy make climate change situation very much complicated.
Today,
we are at a cross-road- convinced that our current development
paradigm, its production technology and philosophy, consumption
patterns, and institutions cannot be sustained. On the other hand, we
are still uncertain about how human society, confronted with this common
but differentiated responsibility, will address and over- come the
challenges through our conscious role and function. The fact which stand
out and reflect our effort to do what is necessary can be understood in
our expression of ideas, interest, willingness and practice.
1.2 Objectives of my study:
Climate change is the most common concern of the 21st
century. Due to the rapid climate change, the world is facing various
kinds of threats e.g. drought, storm, flood, global warming etc. We the
people of the developing countries are already suffering due to climate
change. The key objectives of my study are as follows:
ü To review the major causes and consequences of climate change.
ü To review the perceptual conflicts among developing and developed countries on climate change mitigation.
CHAPTER 2
Concepts and Causes of Climate Change
2.1 What is climate?
Climate
is defined as long-term weather patterns that describe a region.
According to convention on climate change, ‘Climate change’ means a
change of climate which is attributed directly to human activity that
alter the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
IPCC
refers climate as ‘average weather in terms of the mean and its
variability over a certain time-period and a certain area’. Our
traditional appreciation of weather and climate is based on mean values
of variables, such as, maximum and minimum temperatures, surface winds,
precipitation in all its forms, humidity, mist and cloud types, solar
radiation, etc. Climate is determined by atmospheric circulation and its
interactions with ocean currents on a large scale, and with continental
characteristics such as relief, albedo, vegetation, and land humidity,
among other factors.
The
nature of climate varies from place to place, as a function of
latitude, distance from the sea, vegetation, and the presence or absence
of mountains or some other geographical factor. Climate also varies
over time: seasonally, annually, by decades, or through even longer
periods of time such as glacial eras. Statistically significant
variations from the mean state of the climate or its variability,
lasting for decades or longer, are considered to be ‘climate change’
(IPCC, 2001).
2.2 The Climatic System
According
to the IPCC ‘to understand the climate of our planet Earth and its
variations, and to understand and possibly predict the changes of the
climate brought about by human activities, one cannot ignore any of
these many factors and components that determine the climate’. Then it
would be easier to examine different affirmations and to verify if all
the factors and components that determine the climate have been
effectively examined, and if any of them may have been neglected or even
ignored, whether involuntarily or voluntarily
The climatic system has five major components:
The atmosphere:
the most unstable and changeable component of the system. The
modification of its constituents is considered to be the essential
phenomenon in the greenhouse effect, thanks to the properties of its
emissive gases, principally water vapour, to which must be added solid
and liquid particles in suspension (aerosols), and clouds.
The hydrosphere:
all liquid water, including water underground; freshwater in rivers,
lakes, and aquifers; salt water in oceans and seas (which are both sinks
for, and sources of, carbon dioxide); and water/vapour and/or liquid in
suspension in the air.
The lithosphere:
land masses and their distribution and relief (altitude and
disposition), soils, volcanic and terrigenic dust in the form of
aerosols.
The cryosphere: sea ice (ice fields), ice on land (the inlandsis of Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers on mountains, permafrost), snowfields, and ice crystals in high clouds.
The biosphere:
on land and at sea, represented by vegetation, and particularly by
extensive entities such as large areas of forest, not forgetting
plankton fields.
The noosphere (noos, intelligence): - which maybe added to these major components; Representing the actions of the human race.
(Sourse: IPCC, 2001)
Figure-1:
The components of the global climate system: schematic view. Processes
and interactions are represented by thin arrows; aspects that may change
are represented by bold arrows. ( Source: IPCC, 2001)
2.3 Climate Change
“Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability, or as a result of human activity” (IPCC, 2001).
Climate
change refers to variations in the prevailing state of the climate on
all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather
events. It may be due to natural internal processes within the climate
system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-related)
external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the
mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several
decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions
on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as
changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts,
floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to note that
changes in individual weather events will potentially contribute
substantially to changes in climate variability.
2.4 Causes of climate change:
The
climate of the earth is dynamic and always changing through a natural
cycle. Climate changes occur due to externally (from extra-terrestrial
factors-solar output, earth-sun geometry, and stellar dust) or
internally (from ocean, atmosphere and land atmospheric chemistry,
atmospheric albedo, surface albedo, ocean heat change, continental
drift, mountain building, and volcanic activity) through any one of
these component (Agarwal; 2008).
The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories: (i) natural causes & (ii) man-made causes.
2.4.1 Natural causes:
“if
one wishes to understand, detect and eventually predict human
interference on climate, one need to understand the system that
determines the climate of Earth and the processes that lead to climate
change”(IPCC, 2003)
A
number of natural factors are responsible for climate change. Some of
the more prominent ones are Variation in earth orbital, continental
drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, and the earth's tilt.
Figure-2: Natural factor affecting climate change (Pidwirny, 2006)
2.4.1.1 Variation in earths orbital:
Milankovitch
theory suggests that normal cyclical variations in three of the Earth’s
characteristics are probably responsible for some past climate change.
The basic idea behind this theory assumes that over time these cyclical
events vary the amount of solar radiation that is received on the
earth’s surface (Agarwal, 2008).
a.
The first cyclical variation, known as eccentricity, Controls the shape
of the earth orbit around the sun. The orbit gradually changes from
being nearly circular and then back to elliptical in a period of about
100,000 years. The greater the eccentricity of the orbit (that is the
more elliptical it is), the greater the variation in solar energy
received at the top of the atmosphere between the earth’s closest
(perihelion) and farthest (aphelion) approach to the sun. Currently the
Earth is experiencing a period of low eccentricity. The difference of
earth distance from the sun between perihelion and aphelion (which is
about 3%) is reasonably for approximately a 7 percent variation in the
amount of solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere. When the
difference in this distance is at its maximum (9%), the difference in
solar energy received is about 20 percent (According to Pidwirny, 2006).
b.
The second cyclical variation results from the fact that, as the earth
rotates on its polar axis, it wobbles like a spinning top changing the
orbit timing of the equinoxes and solstices. This effect is known as the
procession of equinox. The procession of the equinox has a cycle of
approximately 23000 years (Pidwirny, 2006).
According to the Earth’s orbit analysis, the earth is closer to the sun
in January (perihelion) and further away in July (aphelion) at the
present time. Because of precession, the reverse will be true in 11,500
years and the earth will be closer to the sun in July (Wesker, 1996).
This means, of course that if everything else remain constant,11500
years from snows seasonal variation in the northern Hemisphere should be
greater than at present (colder winter and warmer summers) because of
the closer proximity of the earth to the sun ( Agarwal,2008) .
c. The
Third cyclical variation related to the changes in the tilt of the
earth‘s axis of rotation. The earth makes one full orbit around the sun
each year. It is tilted at an angle of 23.5° to the perpendicular plane
of its orbital path (Wesker, 1996). For one half of the year when it is
summer, the northern hemisphere tilts towards the sun. In the other half
when it is winter, the earth is tilted away from the sun. If there was
no tilt we would not have experienced seasons (Pidwirny, 2006).
Changes in the tilt of the earth can affect the severity of the seasons
- more tilt means warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means
cooler summers and milder winters (Pidwirny, 2006).
At
this time the tilt is small, there is less climatic variation between
the summer and winter season in the middle and high latitudes. Winter
tends to be milder and summer cooler. Warmer winters allow for more
snows to fail in the high latitude regions.
Figure-3:
Modification of the timing of Aphelion and perihelion over time
(A=today; b=1150 years into the future) (agarwal, 2008)
When
the atmosphere is warmer it has a greater ability to hold water vapour
and therefore more snows are produced at areas of frontal or organic
uplift. Cooler summers cause snow and ice to accumulate on the Earth
surface because less of this frozen water is melted. Thus, the net
effect of a smaller tilt would be more extensive formation of glacier in
the polar latitudes (Agarwal, 2008).
Periods of larger tilt result in greater seasonal climatic variation in
the middle and high latitudes. At these times winters tends to be
colder and summer warmer. Colder winter produce less snows because of
lower atmospheric temperatures. Cold winter produces less snow because
of lower atmospheric temperatures. As a result, less snows and ice
accumulates on the ground surface. Moreover the warmer summers produced
by the larger tilt provide additional energy to melt and evaporate the
snow that fell and accumulated during the winter months. Glaciers in the
Polar Regions should be generally receding, with contributing factors constant, during this part of the obliquity cycle (Agarwal, 2008).
2. 4.1.2 Volcanoes:
The
idea that there maybe a link between volcanism and the climate is a
very ancient one (Leroux, 1998, 2001). Many authors have discussed the
link between major volcanic eruptions and marked drops in temperature,
using data from recent times, and also looking back through geologic
time.
Volcanoes,
either active or extinct, are a continuous source of gases, which mayor
may not accompany lava outflows; half of this out gassing probably
occurs at the mid-oceanic ridges. Volcanoes also throw into the
atmosphere:
- water vapour;
- Sulphur compounds (mostly sulphur dioxide, SO2);
- Carbon dioxide (35±65% of the CO2 needed to balance out the deficit of the ocean-atmosphere system,( Gerlach 1991); and
- Chlorine (36 million tones annually in years without major eruptions, (Maduro et al 1992).
The
meteorological effects of volcanoes depend upon the density, extent,
and duration of atmospheric veils of aerosols. Aerosols of non-volcanic
origin (dust, and sand particles from deserts) which generally rise to
only modest altitudes remain in the troposphere for relatively short
periods. Scientists thought that the dust emitted into the atmosphere
from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for cooling by partially
blocking the transmission of solar radiation the earth surface (Wesker,
19960). They are washed out of the atmosphere by rain, or driven towards
the poles, where there is evidence on the ice sheets of the large
amount transports. Measurement indicates that most of the dust thrown
into the atmosphere returned to the earth’s surface. (Agarwal; 2008)
- A large eruption, sending considerable amounts of chlorine into the stratosphere, is accompanied by a decrease in ozone levels. For example, Mount Erebus, in Antarctica, in continuous eruption since 1972, emits more than 1,000 tonnes of chlorine a day (370,000 tonnes in a year), and is a major contributor to ozone reduction above the South Pole. After the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991, measurements showed a decrease in the ozone layer of about 5±6% above northern hemisphere tropical latitudes (where the cloud first spread) (Maduro et al 1992). There were decreases of 3±4% over mid- latitudes, and of 6±9% in high latitudes (Mahfouf and Borel, 1995) as a result of the concentration of aerosols in the polar vortex.
Another
striking example was in the year 1816, often referred to as "the year
without a summer." Significant weather-related disruptions occurred in
New England and in Western Europe with killing summer frosts in the United States and Canada. These strange phenomena were attributed to a major eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia, in 1815 (Wesker, 1996).
Figure-4: Effects of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere (simplified)( Zlang,2004).
2.4.1.3 Ocean currents
The
oceans are a major component of the climate system. They cover about
71% of the Earth and absorb about twice as much of the sun's radiation
as the atmosphere or the land surface. Ocean currents move vast amounts
of heat across the planet - roughly the same amount as the atmosphere
does. But the oceans are surrounded by land masses, so heat transport
through the water is through channels.
Winds push horizontally against the sea surface and drive ocean current patterns.
Certain parts of the world are influenced by ocean currents more than others. The coast of Peru and other adjoining regions are directly influenced by the Humboldt Current that flows along the coastline of Peru.
Certain parts of the world are influenced by ocean currents more than others. The coast of Peru and other adjoining regions are directly influenced by the Humboldt Current that flows along the coastline of Peru.
Another region that is strongly influenced by ocean currents is the North Atlantic. If we compare places at the same latitude in Europe and North America the effect is immediately obvious. Take a closer look at this example - some parts of coastal Norway have an average temperature of -2°C in January and 14°C in July; while places at the same latitude on the Pacific coast of Alaska are far colder: -15°C in January and only 10°C in July. The warm current along the Norwegian coast keeps much of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea free of ice even in winter. The rest of the Arctic Ocean, even though it is much further south, remains frozen.
Ocean
currents have been known to change direction or slow down. Much of the
heat that escapes from the oceans is in the form of water vapour, the
most abundant greenhouse gas on Earth. Yet, water vapor also contributes
to the formation of clouds, which shade the surface and have a net
cooling effect. Any or all of these phenomena can have an impact on the
climate, as is believed to have happened at the end of the last Ice Age,
about 14,000 years ago.
2.4.1.4 Continental drift:
Continental
drift is the movement of the Earth's continents relative to each other.
The notion that continents have not always been at their present
positions was suggested as early as 1596 by the Dutch map maker Abraham
Ortelius in the third edition of his work Thesaurus Geographicus.
Ortelius suggested that the Americas, Eurasia and Africa were once joined and have since drifted apart "by earthquakes and floods", creating the modern Atlantic Ocean.
For evidence, he wrote: "The vestiges of the rupture reveal themselves,
if someone brings forward a map of the world and considers carefully
the coasts of the three continents." Francis Bacon commented on
Ortelius' idea in 1620, as did Benjamin Franklin and Alexander von
Humboldt in later centuries.
Evidence
for continental drift is now extensive. Similar plant and animal
fossils are found around different continent shores, suggesting that
they were once joined. The discovery of fossils of tropical plants (in
the form of coal deposits) in Antarctica has led to the conclusion that
this frozen land at some time in the past, must have been situated
closer to the equator, where the climate was tropical, with swamps and
plenty of lush vegetation (Phillips,1994).
The
continents that we are familiar with today were formed when the
landmass began gradually drifting apart, millions of years back. This
drift also had an impact on the climate because it changed the physical
features of the landmass, their position and the position of water
bodies. The separation of the landmasses changed the flow of ocean
currents and winds, which affected the climate. This drift of the
continents continues even today; the Himalayan range is rising by about 1
mm (millimeter) every year because the Indian land mass is moving
towards the Asian land mass, slowly but steadily (According to Wesker,1996).
5. Solar output: The climate can be influenced greatly by the amount of solar energy caught by the Earth. The energy output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of the Earth's climate (Lamb, 1995). Early in Earth‘s history, according to one theory, the sun was too cold to support liquid water at the Earth's surface, leading to what is known as the Faint young sun paradox. Over the coming millennia, the sun will continue to brighten and produce a correspondingly higher energy output; as it continues through what is known as its “ main sequester", and the Earth's atmosphere will be affected accordingly (Lamb,1995).
Scientists
have long tried to link sunspots to climate change. Sunspots are huge
magnetic storms, appear dark because they are at a lower temperature
(about 4,5000C) than the rest of the photosphere (at about 6,0000C)
(Wesker, 1996). Observations of sunspot activity since the beginning of
the 17th century have revealed that the number of spots varies between
sunspot minimum and sunspot maximum, following an average cycle of 11
years, with variations around this mean value of between 9 and 13 years.
Also cycle occurs in pairs, making the periodicity 22 years. The
maximum before last is in cycle 22, occurred in 1991, and the last
minimum in 1997, when cycle 23 began, with a maximum 2000-2001. The next
minimum is expected in 2007-2008(Wesker, 1996).
Figure-5: Total solar irradiance variation between 1978 and 2002. (Foukal; 2003)
2.4.2 Human induced causes of climate change:
There
are much more human induced causes are responsible for climate change.
Certain atmospheric emissions are unambiguously responsible for the
crises. They include carbon dioxide- the necessary product of combustion
of fossil fuel, biomass burning and deforestation, Methane from
anaerobic digestion of organic matter in the water-logged paddy field
etc. the problem is compounded by deforestation and burning of fossil
fuel. There are brief descriptions of green house gases are given below:
2.4.2.1 The production of green house gases:
Greenhouse gases
are those gases in an atmosphere that absorb and discharge radiation
within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause
of the greenhouse effect. In order, Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are:
- water vapor (H2O)
- carbon dioxide (CO2)
- methane (CH4)
- nitrous oxide (N2O)
- ozone (O3) and
- Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)
The
Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, but does not
plays a significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because
both are essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The
greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water
vapor, carbon dioxide, and other trace gases in the atmosphere that
absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth (IPCC
1996). This
is a process of absorbing of short wave and the re-emission of long
wave back to the Earth's surface increase the quantity of heat energy in
the Earth's climatic system (Chawdnary,1990). Without the greenhouse
effect, the average global temperature of the Earth would be a cold -18°
Celsius rather than the present 15° Celsius (IPCC (2001).
Figure 6: The Greenhouse Effect (Source: U.S. Department of State, 1992)
Changes
in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter
the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land, and
the oceans (IPCC, 1997). A gauge of these changes is called radiative
forcing, which is a simple measure of changes in the energy available to
the Earth-atmosphere system (IPCC 1996). Holding
everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net
increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth). That means earth
become hotter.
Figure-7: The radiation balance of the atmosphere, average of the entire Earth over 24 h. (Source: IPCC report)
According to IPCC, when those gases are ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:
- water vapor, which contributes 36–72%
- carbon dioxide, which contributes 9–26%
- methane, which contributes 4–9%
- ozone, which contributes 3–7%
A brief description of each greenhouse gas, its sources, and its role in the atmosphere is given below.
2.4.2.1.1 Water vapour:
Water
vapour is indeed the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas. In
addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states
including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed
to directly affect the average global concentration of water vapor. The
radiative forcing for water is around 75 W/m2 while carbon dioxide
contributes 32 W/m2 (Kiehl 1997). The radiative forcing produced by the
increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect
the hydrologic cycle.
“Tts
radiative effects are the major factor in the atmospheric greenhouse
effect' (Elliot and Gaffen, 1995). Theory suggests that the global
climate is quite sensitive to the least change in humidity at every
level of the atmosphere, though observations verifying these hypotheses
are few and far between. However, `radiosonde observations over the past
few decades suggest increases in tropospheric water vapour, globally
and regionally” (Elliot and Gaffen, 1995).
Amounts
of water vapour are essentially incapable of regulation, in the
geo-graphical sense, the major source being above the oceans. Its
distribution is also unequal at varying altitudes. `Nearly half the
total water in the air is between sea level and about 1.5km above sea
level. Less than 5±6% of the water is above 5km, and less than 1% is in
the stratosphere, nominally above 12 km' (AGU, 1995).
Figure-8: Contribution to the `greenhouse effect' (natural and man-made causes ± including water vapor). (source: Hieb , 2004)
Table
1: Global atmospheric concentration (ppm unless otherwise specified),
rate of concentration change (ppb/year) and atmospheric lifetime (years)
of selected greenhouse gases
Atmospheric Variable
|
CO2
|
CH 4
|
N2O
|
SF6a
|
CF4a
|
Pre-industrial atmospheric concentration
|
278
|
0.700
|
0.270
|
0
|
40
|
Atmospheric concentration (1998)
|
365
|
1.745
|
0.314
|
4.2
|
80
|
Rate of concentration changeb
|
1.5c
|
0.007c
|
0.0008
|
0.24
|
1.0
|
Atmospheric Lifetime
|
50-200d
|
12e
|
114e
|
3,200
|
>50,000
|
Source: IPCC (2001)
a= Concentrations in parts per trillion (ppt) and rate of concentration change in ppt/year.
b= Rate is calculated over the period 1990 to 1999.
C=
Rate has fluctuated between 0.9 and 2.8 ppm per year for CO 2 and
between 0 and 0.013 ppm per year for CH4 over the period 1990 to 1999.
d= No single lifetime can be defined for CO 2 because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes.
e
= This lifetime has been defined as an “adjustment time” that takes
into account the indirect effect of the gas on its own residence time.
2.4.2.1.2 Carbon Dioxide (CO2):
In nature, carbon is cycled between various atmospheric, oceanic, land
biotic, marine biotic and mineral reservoirs. The largest fluxes occur
between the atmosphere and terrestrial biota, and between the atmosphere
and surface water of the oceans. In the atmosphere, carbon
predominantly exists in its oxidized form as CO2. Atmospheric carbon
dioxide is part of this global carbon cycle, and therefore its fate is a
complex function of geochemical and biological processes. An increase in CO2 is responsible to increase the radiative effect of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Studies of long term climate change have discovered a connection
between the concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and mean
global temperature. Carbon dioxide is one of the more important gases
responsible for the greenhouse effect. Carbon
dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increased from approximately
280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in pre-industrial times to 367
ppmv in 1999, a 31 percent increase (IPCC 2001). The IPCC notes that
“this concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years,
and likely not during
the past 20 million years. The rate of increase over the past century
is unprecedented, at least during the past 20,000 years.”
Human activity is the main reasons behind the increasing amount of CO2. The IPCC definitively states that “the present atmospheric CO2 increase is caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2” (IPCC 2001). Although
change land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and
other activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon
dioxide but fossil fuel combustion are the main sources. The seven sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):
1. Solid fuels e.g. coal: 35%
2. Liquid fuels e.g. gasoline: 36%
3. Gaseous fuels e.g. natural gases: 20%
4. Flaring gas industrially and at wells: <1%
5. Cement production: 3%
6. Non-fuel hydrocarbons: <1%
7. The "international bunkers " of shipping and air transport not included in national inventories: 4%
Figure-9: Global atmospheric concentration of CO2 (source, Wikipedia)
In
its second assessment, the IPCC also stated that “[t]he increased
amount of carbon dioxide [in the atmosphere] is leading to climate
change and will produce, on average, a global warming of the Earth’s
surface because of its enhanced greenhouse effect—although the magnitude
and significance of the effects are not fully resolved” (IPCC 1996), the concentration of which has increased by 33% from 1958 to 2000 (IPCC 2001).
Average global carbon emissions approximate one metric ton per year (tC/yr) per person. In 2004, United States per capita emissions neared 6 tC/yr (with Canada and Australia not far behind), and Japan
and Western European countries range from 2 to 5 tC/yr per capita. Yet
developing countries’ per capita emissions approximate 0.6 tC/yr, and
more than 50 countries are below 0.2 tC/yr (or 30-fold less than an
average American)(IPCC,2003).
|
Figure-10; Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission by sector (source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2.4.2.1.3. Methane (CH4):
Methane is primarily produced through anaerobic decomposition of
organic matter in biological systems. Agricultural processes such as
wetland rice cultivation, enteric fermentation in animals, and the
decomposition of animal wastes emit CH4, as does the
decomposition of municipal solid wastes (Agarwal,2008). Methane is also
emitted during the production and distribution of natural gas and
petroleum, and is released as a by-product of coal mining and incomplete
fossil fuel combustion(Agarwal,2008) . Atmospheric concentrations of
methane have increased by about 150 percent since pre-industrial times
approximately 700 to 1745 ppb by volume in 1998 (IPCC,2001). The IPCC
has estimated that slightly more than half of the current CH4
flux to the atmosphere is anthropogenic, from human activities such as
agriculture, fossil fuel use and waste disposal (IPCC 2001).
Methane
which has a GWP of 21, raises particular concerns about global warming
because over a period of 100 years it is 21 times more effective at
trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide (Agarwal,2008) .
1.4.. Nitrous Oxide (N2O). Anthropogenic
sources of N2O emissions include agricultural soils, especially the use
of synthetic and manure fertilizers; fossil fuel combustion, especially
from mobile combustion; adipic (nylon) and nitric acid production;
wastewater treatment and waste combustion; and biomass burning. The
atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 16
percent since 1750, from a pre industrial value of about 270 ppb to 314
ppb in 1998, and has contributed to 4-6 percent to the enhancement of
the greenhouse effect Agarwal, 2008). Like CO2 nitrous oxide molecules absorbed heat trying to escape to space.
Nitrous
Oxide is a significant gas due to its high global warming potential,
which is 280 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (IPCC, 1996)
2.4.2.1.5. Ozone (O 3).
Ozone is present in both the upper stratosphere, where it shields the
Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation, and at lower
concentrations in the troposphere, where it is the main component of
anthropogenic photochemical “smog” (Chawdnary, 1990) During the last
two decades, emissions of anthropogenic chlorine and bromine-containing
halocarbons, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), have depleted
stratospheric ozone concentrations (IPCC, 1996). This loss of ozone in
the stratosphere has resulted in negative radiative forcing,
representing an indirect effect of anthropogenic emissions of chlorine
and bromine compounds (IPCC 1996). The depletion of stratospheric ozone
and its radiative forcing was expected to reach a maximum in about 2000
before starting to recover, with detection of such recovery not
expected to occur much before 2010 (IPCC 2001).
2.4.2.1.6 The Global Warming Potential
The
Global Warming Potential (GWP) provides a simple measure of the
radiative effects of emissions of various greenhouse gases, integrated
over a specified time horizon, relative to an equal mass of CO2
emissions. The GWP with respect to CO2 is calculated using the formula:
where ai is the instantaneous radiative forcing due to the release of a unit mass of trace gas, i, into the atmosphere, at time TR, Ci is the amount of that unit mass remaining in the atmosphere at time, t, after its release and TH is TR plus the time horizon over which the calculation is performed (100 years in this table).(Formula adapted from page 210 of IPCC (2007).)
Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP ( global warming potential) is include:
· Carbon
dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified
precisely.[ Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of
atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective
lifetime of tens of thousands of years. Carbon dioxide is defined to
have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.
· Methane
has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 72 over 20
years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP at
longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 through
chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
· Nitrous
oxide has an atmospheric lifetime of 114 years and a GWP of 289 over 20
years, 298 over 100 years and 153 over 500 years.
· CFC-12 has an atmospheric lifetime of 100 years and a GWP of 11000 over 20 years, 10900 over 100 years and 5200 over 500 years.
· HCFC-22 has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 years and a GWP of 5160 over 20 years, 1810 over 100 years and 549 over 500 years.
· Tetrafluoromethane
has an atmospheric lifetime of 50,000 years and a GWP of 5210 over 20
years, 7390 over 100 years and 11200 over 500 years.
· Sulphur
hexafluoride has an atmospheric lifetime of 3,200 years and a GWP of
16300 over 20 years, 22800 over 100 years and 32600 over 500 years.
· Nitrogen
trifluoride has an atmospheric lifetime of 740 years and a GWP of 12300
over 20 years, 17200 over 100 years and 20700 over 500 years.
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,
2.4.2.2 Fossil Fuel:
Anaerobic
decomposition of buried dead organisms that lived up to 300 million
years ago formed Fossil fuels or mineral fuels natural .These fuels
contain high percentage of carbon and hydrocarbons. The burning of
fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tons (21.3 gigatons) of carbon
dioxide per year, but it is estimated that natural processes can only
absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65
billion tones of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year (one tonne of
atmospheric carbon is equivalent to 44/12 or 3.7 tons of carbon dioxide). (Bindoff 2007) .While 66% of anthropogenic CO2
emissions over the last 250 years have resulted from burning fossil
fuels, 33% have resulted from changes in land use, primarily
deforestation (Schmidt, Gavin A. 2007)
In the United States,
more than 90% of greenhouse gas emissions come from the combustion of
fossil fuels. Fossil fuels Combustion also produces other air
pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic
compounds and heavy metals.
According
to Environment Canada, Fossil fuel-fired electric power plants emit
carbon dioxide, which contribute to climate change ( Garkack, TM ;1991). Combustion
of fossil fuels generates sulfuric, carbonic, and nitric acids, which
fall to Earth as acid rain, impacting both natural areas and the built
environment. It also contains radioactive materials, mainly uranium and
thorium, which are released into the atmosphere Schmidt, (Gavin A. 2007).
Figure-11: Global energy consumption by fuel type (source: wikipedia)
Tabel-2: Relative CO2 emission from various fuels
Pounds of carbon dioxide emitted per million British thermal unit of energy for various fuels:
Fuel name
|
CO2 emitted (lbs/106 Btu)
|
Natural gas
|
117
|
Liquefied petroleum gas
|
139
|
Propane
|
139
|
Aviation gasoline
|
153
|
Automobile gasoline
|
156
|
Kerosene
|
159
|
Fuel oil
|
161
|
Tires/tire derived fuel
|
189
|
Wood and wood waste
|
195
|
Coal (bituminous)
|
205
|
Coal (subbituminous)
|
213
|
Coal (lignite)
|
215
|
Petroleum coke
|
225
|
Coal (anthracite)
|
227
|
(Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
2.4.2.3 Deforestation:
Deforestation both reduces the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by
deforested regions and releases greenhouse gases directly, together with
aerosols.
There
are many root causes of deforestation, including corruption of
government institutions, the inequitable distribution of wealth and
power, population growth[4] and overpopulation,[5][6[ and urbanization.
Globalization is often viewed as another root cause of deforestation,
though there are cases in which the impacts of globalization (new flows
of labor, capital, commodities, and ideas) have promoted localized
forest recovery.
According
to British environmentalist Norman Myers, 5% of deforestation is due to
cattle ranching, 19% due to over-heavy logging, 22% due to the growing
sector of palm oil plantations, and 54% due to slash-and-burn farming.
Global
deforestation sharply accelerated around 1852. It has been estimated
that about half of the earth's mature tropical forests — between 7.5
million and 8 million km2 (2.9 million to 3 million sq mi) of the
original 15 million to 16 million km2 (5.8 million to 6.2 million sq mi)
that until 1947 covered the planet— have now been cleared. Some
scientists have predicted that unless significant measures (such as
seeking out and protecting old growth forests that haven't been
disturbed) are taken on a worldwide basis, by 2030 there will only be
ten percent remaining, with another ten percent in a degraded condition.
80 percent will have been lost, and with them hundreds of thousands of
irreplaceable species.
Deforestation is directly responsible for climate change. Forest
and soil are reserve about 2200 Gt c. only Amazon rainforest locks up
11 years of carbon dioxide emissions Rainforests play the important role
of locking up atmospheric carbon in their vegetation via
photosynthesis. The vegetation and soils of the world's forests contain
about 125 percent of the carbon found in the atmosphere. When forests
are degraded, or cleared, the opposite effect occurs: large amounts of
carbon are released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide along with
other greenhouse gases (nitrous oxide, methane, and other nitrogen
oxides). The burning of forests releases about two billion metric tons
of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, or about 22 percent of
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. Deforestation has a great
contribution to climate change. Table -2 show the reservoirs of carbon.
Table-3: The global carbon reservoirs:
Reservoir
|
Size (Gt C)
|
Atmosphere
|
750
|
Forest
|
610
|
Soils
|
1580
|
Surface Ocean
|
1020
|
Deep Ocean
|
38100
|
Fossil fuels
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Total fossil fuel
|
1.4000
2.500
3.500
4.5000
|
Source: global warming and climate change by ( Agarwal;2008)
2.4.2.4 Aerosol Cloud:
Aerosols
are extremely small particles or liquid droplets found in the
atmosphere. They can be produced by natural events such as dust storms
and volcanic activity, or by anthropogenic processes such as fuel
combustion and biomass burning.
They
are removed from the atmosphere relatively rapidly by precipitation.
Because aerosols generally have short atmospheric lifetimes, and have
concentrations and compositions that vary regionally, spatially, and
temporally, their contributions to radiative forcing are difficult to
quantify (IPCC 2001).
Various
categories of aerosols exist, including naturally produced aerosols
such as soil dust, sea salt, biogenic aerosols, sulphates, and volcanic
aerosols, and anthropogenically manufactured aerosols such as industrial
dust and carbonaceous aerosols (e.g., black carbon, organic carbon)
from transportation, coal combustion, cement manufacturing, waste
incineration, and biomass burning.
The
main effects due to aerosols involve the scattering of solar radiation
into space and towards the Earth. Major dust eruptions are more likely
to cause such effects, but more modest eruptions may also contribute if
the ejected magma is rich in sulphur.
Effects on solar radiation have been measured ever since the eruption of Krakatoa (near Sumatra, Indonesia)
in 1883. The aerosols from this eruption reduced direct solar radiation
by20±30% for a few months, though there was a certain compensatory
effect from scattered radiation. The explosion of Gunung Agung (Bali,
Indonesia) in 1963, then called `the eruption of the century' because of
the quantity of ash sent up into the stratosphere, led to a 24%
reduction in direct radiation, but compensatory scattering effects
brought this down to only6% of total radiation; it took 13 years for the
volcanic dust to disperse. After the eruption of El ChichoÂn (YucataÂn, Mexico) on 28 March 1982,
the planetary albedo showed an increase of the order of 10% (Halpert et
al., 1993). There was also a decrease of 25±30% in direct solar
radiation lasting several months after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 (Dutton and Christy, 1992).
Aerosols
also have indirect radiative force effect. The indirect radiative
forcing from aerosols are typically divided into two effects. The first
effect involves decreased droplet size and increased droplet
concentration resulting from an increase in airborne aerosols. The
second effect involves an increase in the water content and lifetime of
clouds due to the effect of reduced droplet size on precipitation
efficiency (IPCC 2001). Recent research has placed a greater focus on
the second indirect radiative forcing effect of aerosols.
The
IPCC’s Third Assessment Report notes that “the indirect radiative
effect of aerosols is now understood to also encompass effects on ice
and mixed-phase clouds, but the magnitude of any such indirect effect is
not known, although it is likely to be positive” (IPCC 2001).
CHAPTER-3
Consequences of Climate Change
Climate
change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be
identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or
the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate
over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity. Climate change refers to a change of climate that is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Some major
consequences are as follows:
3.1 Negative impacts:
climate change has emerged as the greatest challenge facing human
kind.this global problem has serious local problem and poses major
threats to the human security. The most important negative impacts are
given below:
3.1.1 Temperature:
The
temperature of the earth is determined by the balance between the rate
at which sunlight reaches the earth‘s surface and rate at which warmed
earth, send inferred radiation back in to the space (Agarwal,2008). The
warm temperature which make life on the earth possible, are the direct
result of the trapping of part of the earth’s radiant heat by traces of
atmospheric Carbon dioxide, Methane, water vapor. Nitrous-oxide and
chlorofluorocarbon. But the increasing emission of Green house gases
losses the balance.
Over
the last three decades, there has been growing concern that increases
in atmospheric greenhouse gases will lead to substantial changes in the
Earth’s climate. In addition to a general increase in temperature, it
has been predicted that there will be changes in the geographical
distribution, intensity and frequency of extreme events. Global warming
is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global average sea level and we humans are the main
cause (IPCC 2001).
Since 1905 the average temperature of the planet, then at 14oC, has increased 2.5%, an unusually rapid rate (a 0.35oC rise) (IPCC,2001). Over the last 25 years, from 1970 to 2005, it went up 4% (or 0.55oC) (Agarwal,2008) . The total increase in global average temperature represents a rise of 5.4% (or 0.74oC)
since 1750. “The warming trend over the last 50 years (1955 to 2005)
is nearly twice that for the last 100 years”. The IPCC scientists say
that much of it happened in the last 15 years! True, some cool years do
occur. This is not a matter of the normal variability of temperature.
The key point is that the overall trend since 1850, and especially since
1990, is that of a consistent, increasingly and unusually rapid,
increase in global average temperatures
"The
link between temperature and carbon dioxide, as well as methane
concentrations in the past is surprisingly constant over time. Only
through the impact of humans during the last centuries, atmospheric
green house gases have been raised above their natural levels" Prof Dr
Thomas Stocker of the Physics Institute at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
Fig-12:
The concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane
have heavily increased since the beginning of the 20th century,(IPCC)
Figure.13:
Average Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past 1000 years.( Red =
instrumental record, blue = reconstructed using proxy indicators, black
= 40 year average, grey = estimated uncertainty range.) (Reproduced
with permission from IPCC)
Observations of surface air temperature, averaged over the globe, indicate a warming of 0.7 80C
from 1860 to 2000 (Parker et al. 2005). The temporal pattern of global
mean warming is similar whether using independent data from land, sea
surface or the air above the ocean. Attempts to simulate the temperature
record using comprehensive three-dimensional climate models can only
reproduce the rapid warming in the last three decades when the effect of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases is included ( Stott et al. 2000,). That
means when we combined the modeled and observed data in a graph then we
get the prove that recent growing temperature is only and only due to
increasing GHGs. (figure 2)
Figure-14; climate change attribution between observed an modeled
Source: wikipedia
Prediction about temperature rise:
In
its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC noted that, when allowing for
uncertainties in future changes in greenhouse and aerosol concentrations
as well as for the range of probable climate sensitivity to such
changes, expected warming of average surface temperatures will be
between 1 and 2.5°C by 2050, increasing to between 1.4 and 5.8°C by
2100, relative to mean climate conditions of the past few decades. The CO2 emissions scenarios ranged from 5 to about 30 GtC/yr in 2100 (current anthropogenic emissions are about 76 GtC/yr).(IPCC,2001)
Delayed
effects from changes in radiative forcings to date already commit the
world to 0.5°C of that warming, even if all emissions of greenhouse
gases were to stop immediately.
Figure-15: temperature increase in the next century (Source, IPCC,Working group,1)
There
is considerable agreement between model results on the significance of
global-scale changes in temperature; there is much less agreement with
respect to regional changes. Despite these differences, there are a
number of common features. For example:
· Land
areas warm more than ocean surfaces. This is primarily a consequence of
the thermal inertia of oceans ( according to Agarwal,2008).
· The
Arctic polar region warms more than the tropics. The primary reason for
this polar amplification is the reduction in the extent and duration of
snow and ice cover on the surface, which thus reduces surface albedo,
causing a positive feedback. Although such amplification is also expected
to eventually occur in the Antarctic region, model experiments suggest a
delayed cryospheric response to global warming in that region, relative
to that in the Arctic.(Peter,2004)
· Nighttime
temperatures will, on average, warm more than daytime temperatures,
thus reducing the daily temperature range ( according to Peter,2004).
· Ocean
circulation is expected to slow down. The turnover of the global oceans
is largely determined by thermohaline processes that affect surface
water densities. Generally, model studies agree that enhanced
precipitation in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is likely
to decrease the rate of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic
and hence weaken the thermohaline circulation system. Melting of sea
ice will add to this freshwater input. A weaker ocean circulation will
also influence ocean heat transport mechanisms and may thus cause some
surface ocean regions, like areas of the North Atlantic, to actually cool while the rest of the world warms (Vellinga,2000).
· Natural
oscillations in the climate system will be superimposed on the
projected upward trends in temperatures, and hence will modulate both
the temporal and spatial response of climates to enhanced radiative
forcing. This adds significantly to the temporal and spatial uncertainty
of the model projections, particularly at the regional scale
(Verseveld,2000).
· There
is also evidence that the pattern of future warming will increasingly
be like that of current El Niño years, with enhanced warming in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific relative to the western Pacific.
This, in turn, causes global atmospheric circulation patterns to change
(Peter,2004).
3.1.2 Precipitation:
The
increase in mean temperature increases the saturation vapor pressure of
water, and hence potentially the water content of the atmosphere
(Agarwal,2008). All other things being equal, this would, in turn, lead
to increased intensity in precipitation events. If relative humidity
(the fractional saturation of the atmosphere) is preserved, which
appears to be true to first order in model simulations, and then the
water content of the atmosphere would increase by about 6% for each
degree Celsius of warming, following the Clausius Clapeyron equation. J.
Gregory (Allen & Ingram 2002) found that the most extreme
precipitation rates did increase by this level in a simulation with
increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the intensity of moderate and
light events decreased. The increase in atmospheric water increases the
radiative warming of the surface and combined with the radiative cooling
of the free atmosphere (Mitchell et al. 1987) tends to reduce the
static stability of the atmosphere, supporting more intense
precipitation.
According
to Dr. Peter Toth, “there are a large number of human activities affect
global rainfall patterns, including increased precipitation in the
north of 50 degrees north latitude, in this area, including the United Kingdom.”
“The wet winter in the United Kingdom
is expected that this will lead to more extreme precipitation, while
summer is expected to be drier. But it may be based on climate change,
there will be increased, even in extreme precipitation generally
dry.”(Peter,2004). Recent events related to abnormal Weather conditions,
with Tropical Ocean. The biggest problem in the UK is a great uncertainty about what will happen in the future of extreme rainfall (Peter,2004).
Figure-16; The evolution of globally averaged temperature (8C) changes relative to the years1961–1990 for the SRES A2 scenario from nine general circulation models (IPCC).
As
average global temperatures have risen, average global precipitation
has also increased. According to the IPCC, the following precipitation
trends have been observed:
· Precipitation
has generally increased over land north of 30°N from 1900-2005, but has
mostly declined over the tropics since the 1970s. Globally there has
been no statistically significant overall trend in precipitation over
the past century, although trends have varied widely by region and over
time.
· It
has become significantly wetter in eastern parts of North and South
America, northern Europe, and northern and central Asia, but drier in
the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia.
· Changes
in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested by
freshening of mid- and high-latitude waters (implying more
precipitation), along with increased salinity in low-latitude waters
(implying less precipitation and/or more evaporation).
· There
has been an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events over
many areas during the past century, as well as an increase since the
1970s in the prevalence of droughts—especially in the tropics and
subtropics.
In
the Northern Hemisphere's mid- and high latitudes, the precipitation
trends are consistent with climate model simulations that predict an
increase in precipitation due to human-induced warming.
3.1.3. Glacier and sea ice melting:
Glacier
and sea ice melting are one of the proven consequences of climate
change. As the earth’s temperature has risen in recent decades, the
earth’s ice cover has begun to melt. And that melting is accelerating.
Antarctic;
Huge, pristine, dramatic, unforgiving; the Antarctic is where the
biggest of all global changes could begin. There is so much ice here
that if it all melted, sea levels globally would rise hugely - perhaps
as much as 80m. Scientists divide the Antarctic into three zones: the
east and west Antarctic ice sheets; and the Peninsula, the tongue of
land which points up towards the southern tip of South America
(Agarwl,2008). Parts of it appear to be thickening as a result of
snowfall increases. But the peninsula is thinning at an alarming rate
due to warming (Vellinga,et.al,2000). The West Antarctic sheet is also
thinning on average by about 10cm per year, but in the worst places by
3-4m per year (IPCC, 2007). This Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise
sea level by 5-6 meters (17-20 feet) (IPCC, 2007)
Antarctica: Most of the world's freshwater ice is contained in the great ice sheets that cover the continent of Antarctica. The most dramatic example of glacier retreat on the continent is the loss of large sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Ice shelves are not stable when surface melting occurs, and the
collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf has been caused by warmer melt season
temperatures that have led to surface melting and the formation of
shallow ponds of water on the ice shelf (Agarwl,2008). The Larsen Ice
Shelf lost 2,500 km2 (970 sq mi) of its area from 1995 to 2001 (IPCC,2003). In a 35-day period beginning on January 31, 2002, about 3,250 km2
(1,250 sq mi) of shelf area disintegrated (Huggel,2008). The ice shelf
is now 40% the size of its previous minimum stable extent(Huggel,2008) .
Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) : The Greenland
ice sheet contains enough ice to raise sea level about 7 meters (23
feet) (ipcc,2007). The net loss in volume and hence sea level
contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has doubled in recent
years from 90 km3 (22 cu mi) to 220 km3 (53 cu mi)
per year (ipcc,2007). The period since 2000 has brought retreat to
several very large glaciers that had long been stable. Satellite images
and aerial photographs from the 1950s and 1970s show that the front of
the glacier had remained in the same place for decades (Agarwal,2008).
In 2001 the glacier began retreating rapidly, and by 2005 the glacier
had retreated a total of 7.2 km (4.5 mi), accelerating from 20 m (66 ft)
per day to 35 m (110 ft) per day during that period Huggel,2008). Were Greenland s entire ice sheet to melt, global sea level could rise by a starting 7 meters inundating most of the world’s coastal cities.
The Himalayas: The Himalayas and other mountain chains of central Asia
support large regions that are glaciated. The loss of these glaciers
would have a tremendous impact on the ecosystem of the region. A March
2005 WWF report concluded that 67% of all Himalayan glaciers are
retreating. In examining 612 glaciers in China
between 1950 and 1970, 53% of the glaciers studied were retreating
(IPCC,2001). After 1990, 95% of these glaciers were measured to be
retreating, indicating that retreat of these glaciers was becoming more
widespread (IPCC,2001) . In India the Gangotri Glacier, which is a
significant source of water for the Ganges River, retreated 34 m
(110 ft) per year between 1970 and 1996, and has averaged a loss of 30 m
(98 ft) per year since 2000. However, the glacier is still over 30 km
(19 mi) long (Huggel,2008). The continued retreat of glaciers will have a
number of different quantitative impacts. Sea level rise, reduction of
fresh water and irrigation water, specious loss etc.
.
Figure 17 : Satellite images of the Gangotri Glacier retreat (Source; Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
3.1.4 Sea level rise:
· Current sea level rise
has occurred at a mean rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past century,
and more recently at rates estimated near 2.8 ± 0.4 to 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year (1993-2003) (IPCC,2003). Current sea level rise is due to human-induced global warming, the
ocean sea surface temperature which will increase sea level over the
coming century and longer periods (Vellinga,2000). Increasing
temperatures result in sea level rise by the thermal expansion of water
and through the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of
continental ice sheets. Thermal expansion, which is well-quantified, is
currently the primary contributor to sea level rise and is expected to
be the primary contributor over the course of the next century
(Agarwal,2008). Thermal expansion, The volume of the ocean surface water
layer expands per 0.1oC warming of the surface layer of the oceans, such that the sea level rises about 1 centimeter. Thus, the measured 0.6oC-sea surface temperature increase explains a 6 centimeters sea level rise ( Wigley 1999)
Glacier
melting is another cause of sea level rise. Average global sea-level
rise over the second half of the 20th century was 1.8±0.3 mm/yr, and
sea-level rise of the order of 2to3 mm/yr is considered likely during
the early 21st century as a consequence of global warming (Woodroffeetal, 2006).
Figure
18. Global mean sea level changes according to different SRES
scenarios. The minimum and maximum values are the result of using
different sensitivities of 1.5 o C and 4.5 o C and low and high ice-melt
model parameter values ( source: Wigley 1999).
Values
for predicted sea level rise over the course of the next century
typically range from 90 to 880 mm, with a central value of 480 mm
(Vellinga, 2008). Based on an analog to the deglaciation of North America at 9,000 years before present, some scientists predict sea level rise of 1.3 meters in the next century( Wigley 1999).
Figure-19:
Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows
the estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements
are not available. The red line is a reconstruction of sea level change
measured by tide gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the
uncertainty. The green line shows sea level change as measured by
satellite. The purple shaded area represents the range of model
projections for a medium growth emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A1B). For
reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC (2007)
In
2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment
Report predicted that by 2100, global warming will lead to a sea level
rise of 9 to 88 cm. At that time no significant acceleration in the rate
of sea level rise during the 20th century had been detected.
Subsequently, Church and White(2005) found acceleration of 0.013 ±
0.006 mm/yr2.
Future
sea level rise, like the recent rise, is not expected to be globally
uniform (details below). Some regions show a sea-level rise
substantially more than the global average (in many cases of more than
twice the average), and others a sea level fall (Church and White,2005).
However, models disagree as to the likely pattern of sea level change.
Over
time, more substantial changes in sea level are possible due to the
vulnerability of the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheets. However,
there are significant uncertainties about the magnitude and speed of
future changes (IPCC, 2007):
3.1.5 Sea level rise and coastal or low-lying areas
Coasts
are dynamic systems, undergoing adjustments of form and process (termed
morphodynamics) at different time and space scales in response to
geo-morphological and ocean graphical factors (Cowelletal, 2003).
Coastal
land forms, affected by short-term perturbations such as storms,
generally return to their pre-disturbance morphology, implying a simple,
morpho-dynamic equilibrium. Many coasts undergo continual adjustment
towards a dynamic equilibrium, often adopting different ‘states’ in
response to varying wave energy and sediment supply(Woodroffe,2003).
Coasts respond to altered condition s external to the system, such as
storm events, or changes triggered by internal thresholds that cannot be
predicted on the basis of external stimuli.
Trenberth
et al.(2007)and Bindoff et al.(2007) observed a number of important
climate change-related effects relevant to coastal zones. Rising CO 2
concentrations have lowered ocean surface pH by 0.1 units since 1750 (Mortsch, 2006). Recent trend analyses indicate that tropical cyclones have increased in intensity.
In Asia, erosion is the main process that will occur to land as sea level continues to rise. In some coastal are as of Asia,
a 30 cm rise in sea level can result in 45m of landward erosion (ACIA,
2005). Climate change and sea-level rise will tend to worsen the
currently eroding coasts (HuangandXie, 2000). In Boreal Asia, coastal
erosion will be enhanced as rising sea level and declining sea ice allow
higher wave and storm surge to hit the shore (ACIA, 2005).
Projected
sea-level rise could flood the residence of millions of people living
in the low-lying area s of South, South-East and East Asia such as in
Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and China (Wassmann et al.,2004;
Stern,2007).Even under the most conservative scenario, sea level will
be about 40cm higher than today by the end of 21st century
and this is projected to increase the annual number of people flooded in
coastal populations from 13 million to 94million. Almost 60% of this
increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma), while about 20% will occur in South-East Asia, specifically from Thailand to Vietnam including Indonesia and the Philippines
(W al.,2004). The potential impacts of one meter sea-level rise include
inundation of 5,763km2 and 2,339km2 in India and in some big cities of
Japan, respectively ( Mimura and Yokoki, 2004). For one metre sea-level
rise with high tide and storm surge,the maximum inundation area is
estimated to be 2,643 km2 or about 1.2% of total area of the Korean Peninsula (Matsen and Jakobsen,2004).
Figure-20; Potential impact of sea-level rise on Bangladesh (Source: BCAS)
Forty
percent of the population of West Africa live in coastal cities, and it
is expected that the 500km of coastline between Accra and the Niger
delta will become a continuous urban megalopolis of more than 50 million
in habitants by 2020 (Hewawasam,2002). By 2015,three coastal megacities
of at least 8million in habitants will be located in Africa(Klein
et al.,2002;Armah et al.,2005; Gommes et al.,2005). The projected rise
in sea level will have significant impacts on these coastal megacities
because of the concentration of poor populations in potentially
hazardous are as that may be especially vulnerable to such changes
(Klein etal. 2002; Nicholls, 2004)
Coastal agriculture (e.g., plantations of palm oil and coconuts in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, shallots in Ghana) could beat risk of inundation and soil salinisation. In Kenya,
losses for three crops (mangoes, cashew nut sand-coconuts) could costal
most US$500 million for a 1 m sea-level rise (RepublicofKenya, 2002).
In Guinea, between 130 and 235km2 of rice fields (17% and 30% of the
existing rice field area) could be lost as a result of permanent
flooding, depending on the inundation level considered (between 5 and
6m) by 2050 (République de Guinée,2002). In Eritrea, a 1 m rise in
sea-level is estimated to cause damage of over US$250 million as a
result of the sub-mergence of infrastructure and other economic
installations in Massena, one of the country’s two port cities
(StateofEritrea,2001).
Climate
change has an indirect impact on socio-economic condition of the people
of vulnerable region, specially the coastal zone of low land areas.
3.1.6 Impacts of climate change on forests
Increased temperatures and levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide as well
as changes in precipitation and in the frequency and severity of
extreme climatic events, due to Climate change is having notable impact
on the world’s forests and the forest sector IPCC,2001). Living species
as well as plants rely on a certain range in seasonal temperatures and
precipitation for proper function in their various life stages. When
variations exceeds an acceptable range, damage individuals so that they
die or their function is impaired (Bassow et al. 1994).
Large-scale incidents of forest dieback have been positively correlated with extreme weather events (Auclair et al. 1990, 1996). Warmer
temperatures reduced water use efficiency of because it increases water
losses from evaporation and evapotranspiration (Mortsch, 2006). Longer,
warmer growing seasons can intensify these effects resulting in severe
moisture stress and drought. Such conditions can lead to reductions in
the growth and health of trees although the severity of the impacts
depends on the forest characteristics, age-class structure and soil
depth and type (Mortsch, 2006). Seedlings and saplings are particularly
at risk whereas large trees are capable to store nutrients and
carbohydrates tend to be less sensitive to drought, though they are
affected by more severe conditions. Trees and plants of Shallow-rooted
species are more susceptible to water deficits because they are adapted
to shallow soil.
Some impact of climate change on forest:
· Forest supports a large and diverse ecosystem. Any small impact can alter the whole complex. Up to 50% of the Asia’s total biodiversity is at risk due to climate change (Mortsch, 2006).
· Boreal forests in North-Asia would move further north. Projections
under doubled-CO 2 climate using two GCMs show that 105 to 1,522 plant
species and 5 to77 vertebrates in China and 133 to 2,835 plants and 10
to 213 vertebrates in Indo-Burma could become extinct (Malcolm et
al.,2006).
· In central Alaska,
permafrost degradation is widespread and rapid leading to large
ecosystem shifts from birch forests to fens and bogs (Jorgenson et al.,
2001). Permafrost degradation in response to warming has also been
reported from Western Canada
where forested bogs are becoming non-forested poor fens as a result of
rising water levels (Vitt, Halsey and Zoltai, 2000). Alaska yellow-cedar
(Chamaecyparis nootkatensis),
normally an extremely hardy and resilient species, is dying on about
200 000 ha in Alaska and Canada, as early spring melt exposes their
shallow roots to spring freezing injury and death( Hennon et al., 2008).
Forests
are subjected to a variety of disturbances such as fire, drought,
landslides, species invasions, insect and disease outbreaks, and storms
such as hurricanes, windstorms and ice storms influence the composition,
structure and function of forests that are themselves influenced by
climate. (Dale et al., 2001).
Most
vulnerable disturbance is forest fires, may occur more frequently,
affect larger areas, become more commonplace in settings where these
events currently are rare, or otherwise do more damage (Bachelet et
al., 2003, 2004; Scholze et al., 2006). Statistics indicate that fire
activity has increased in the United States,
for example, in recent decades. On average; 1.8 million hectares have
burned each year since 1960, although the average from 1997 through 2006
was nearly 2.4 million hectares per annum. Most of the scientists
suggest that climate change is the reason of increasing activity of
forest fire in the western part of the country (Westerling et al, 2006).
The observations in the past 20 years show that the increasing intensity and spread of forest fires in North and South-East Asia
were largely related to rises in temperature and declines in
precipitation in combination with increasing intensity of land uses. One
study on the impacts of climate change on fires show that for an
average temperature increase of1°C, the duration of wildfire season in
North Asia could increase by 30% (Vorobyov, 2004), which could have
varying adverse and beneficial impacts on biodiversity, forest structure
and composition, outbreaks of pest and diseases, wild life habitat
quality and other key forest ecosystem function.
These
changes in climate may increase forest’s susceptibility to wildfire. In
areas of the west which experience significant yearly danger of forest
fire, there are projections of no change in precipitation or substantial
drying accompanying projected rises in temperature (Manabe et al. 1991,
Cubasch et al. 1992, Murphy 1995). Either of these dynamics could
result in a higher probability of catastrophic fires, but decreases in
precipitation would likely increase that danger substantially.
Historically, occurrence of fire in western forests has varied directly
with variations in temperature, and varied inversely with fluctuations
in precipitation (Swetnam 1993). Forests in the western states already
suffer the effects of deprivation of normal fire regimes, and of insect
infestation (Sampson et al. 1994). These conditions have led to
unprecedented losses of timber- lands to catastrophic fires in recent
years as stand structures have departed from their historic range of
variability.
3.1.7 Impact on Hydrology and water resources:
Climate
change is expected to lead to reductions in water supply in most
regions in the united state. Scientists predict significant loss of
snowpack` glacier in the western mountains, a critically important
source of natural water storage for California. At
the global scale, there is evidence of a broadly rational pattern of
change in annual runoff, with some regions experiencing an
increase (Tao et al., 2003a, b, for China; Hyvarinen, 2003, for
Finland; Walter et al., 2004, for the coterminous USA), particularly
at higher latitudes, and others a decrease, for example in parts of
West Africa, southern Europe and southern Latin America (Milly et al.,
2005).
The loss of snowpack will reduce the availability of water for California and the other Colorado River basin states (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming).
Snow accumulates until spring and early summer, when warming
temperatures melt the snowpack, releasing water as runoff. In most river
basins of the West, snow is the largest source of water storage (even
greater than man-made reservoirs). As a result, snowpack has been the
primary source of water for arid western states during the spring and
summer, when their water needs are greatest. But increasing temperature
became a threat for snow accumulation. Labat et al. (2004) claimed a 4%
increase in global total runoff per 1°C rise in temperature during the
20th century, with regional variation around this trend.
Climate change affects groundwater recharge rates (i.e., the renewable groundwater resources) and depths of groundwater also.
The hydrological cycle is consisting with groundwater flow in shallow
aquifers and with surface water flow. Groundwater contributes flow to
many rivers and streams and is an important source of drinking and
irrigation water. It is affected by climate variability and change
through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human
interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001)Groundwater
levels of many aquifers around the world show a decreasing trend over
the last few decades. Aquifers will suffer from the trend of heavier
precipitation events, because more water will go to runoff before it can
percolate into aquifers. Thus, even in a future where overall
precipitation increases, aquifer levels may decrease, due to the
increased intensity of precipitation events.
There
some regions, such as south-western Australia, where increased
groundwater withdrawals have been caused not only by increased water
demand but also because of a climate-related decrease in
recharge from surface water supplies (Government of Western Australia,
2003).
Figure-21: Impact of sea level rise on surface water and ground water (source: lal,2003)
Almost 40 percent of the world population lives in coastal areas, less than 60 kilometers from the shoreline, these regions may face loss of freshwater resources more than originally thought.
Relatively
humid coastal areas will face their own challenges. Increasing salinity
in freshwater supplies will become a bigger concern in coastal areas as
the sea level rises due to thermal expansion (expansion of water as it
warms) of the oceans, increased melting of glaciers, and melting of the
Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Rising sea levels push saltwater
further inland in rivers, deltas, and coastal aquifers, causing
saltwater intrusion on coastal freshwater supplies in many coastal
states. Salinity problems in coastal areas are typically most acute
during late summer and early fall. Water demand at these times is high,
and additional pumping from aquifers facilitates saltwater intrusion.
Releasing water from reservoirs can sometimes help keep saltwater out of
aquifers (by reducing demand), but water availability to reservoirs is
typically low in late summer and early fall. In addition, the earlier
snowmelt expected from warming temperatures will extend the drier summer
season and create more opportunity for saltwater intrusion.
3.1.8 Health:
Health
is essential to the quality of life and is viewed by many as a
fundamental human right. Climate change is an emerging threat to global
public health. According to statistics from the World Health
Organization (WHO), regions or populations already experiencing the most
increase in diseases attributable to temperature rise in the past 30
years ironically contain those populations least responsible for causing
greenhouse gas warming of the planet.The IPCC has assessed that the
global mean temperature is likely to rise by 1.4–5.8°C between 1990 and
2100 with associated changes in the hydrological cycle. These will cause
a range of health impacts.
The
World Health Organization (WHO) quantitative assessment, taking into
account only a subset of the possible health impacts, concluded that the
effects of the climate change that have occurred since the mid-1970s
may have caused a net increase of over 150,000 deaths in 2000. It also
concluded that these impacts are likely to increase in the future.
Figure-22: Relation between climate change and health ;(source :WHO)
10 acts on climate change and health according to WHO:
1. Over
the last 50 years, human activities - particularly the burning of
fossil fuels - have released sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases to affect the global climate. The atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since
pre-industrial times, trapping more heat in the lower atmosphere. The
resulting changes in the global climate bring a range of risks to
health, from deaths in extreme high temperatures to changing patterns of
infectious diseases.
2. From
the tropics to the arctic, climate and weather have powerful direct and
indirect impacts on human life. Weather extremes - such as heavy rains,
floods, and disasters like Hurricane Katrina that devastated New Orleans, USA
in August 2005 - endanger health as well as destroy property and
livelihoods. Approximately 600 000 deaths occurred worldwide as a result
of weather-related natural disasters in the 1990s, some 95% of which
took place in developing countries.
3. Intense
short-term fluctuations in temperature can also seriously affect health
- causing heat stress (hyperthermia) or extreme cold (hypothermia) -
and lead to increased death rates from heart and respiratory diseases.
Recent studies suggest that the record high temperatures in Western Europe
in the summer of 2003 were associated with a spike of an estimated 70
000 more deaths than the equivalent periods in previous years.
4. Increasing
global temperatures affect levels and seasonal patterns of both
man-made and natural air-borne particles, such as plant pollen, which
can trigger asthma. About 300 million people suffer from asthma, and 255
000 people died of the disease in 2005. Asthma deaths are expected to
increase by almost 20% in the next 10 years if urgent actions to curb
climate change and prepare for its consequences are not taken.
5. Rising
sea levels - another outcome of global warming - increase the risk of
coastal flooding, and could cause population displacement. More than
half of the world's population now lives within 60 kilometers of
shorelines. Some of the most vulnerable regions are the Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and small island nations such as the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu in the Pacific Ocean.
Floods can directly cause injury and death, and increase risks of
infection from water and vector-borne diseases. Population displacement
could increase tensions and potentially the risks of conflict.
6. More
variable rainfall patterns are likely to compromise the supply of fresh
water. Globally, water scarcity already affects four out of every 10
people. A lack of water and poor water quality can compromise hygiene
and health. This increases the risk of diarrhoea, which kills
approximately 1.8 million people every year, as well as trachoma (an eye
infection that can lead to blindness) and other illnesses.
7. Climatic
conditions affect diseases transmitted through water, and via vectors
such as mosquitoes. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest
global killers. Diarrhoea, malaria and protein-energy malnutrition alone
caused more than 3 million deaths globally in 2002, with over one third
of these deaths occurring in Africa.
8. Malnutrition
causes millions of deaths each year, from both a lack of sufficient
nutrients to sustain life and a resulting vulnerability to infectious
diseases such as malaria, diarrhoea, and respiratory illnesses.
Increasing temperatures on the planet and more variable rainfalls are
expected to reduce crop yields in many tropical developing regions,
where food security is already a problem. Mali
is a good example. Unless adaptive measures are taken, climate change
is projected to approximately double by the 2050s the percentage of its
population at risk of hunger and associated health effects.
9. Malnutrition
causes millions of deaths each year, from both a lack of sufficient
nutrients to sustain life and a resulting vulnerability to infectious
diseases such as malaria, diarrhoea, and respiratory illnesses.
Increasing temperatures on the planet and more variable rainfalls are
expected to reduce crop yields in many tropical developing regions,
where food security is already a problem. Mali
is a good example. Unless adaptive measures are taken, climate change
is projected to approximately double by the 2050s the percentage of its
population at risk of hunger and associated health effects.
10. Steps
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or lessen the health impacts of
climate change could have positive health effects. For example,
promoting the safe use of public transportation and active movement -
such as biking or walking as alternatives to using private vehicles -
could reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve public health. They
can not only cut traffic injuries, but also air pollution and associated
respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Increased levels of physical
activity can lower overall mortality rates
The
World Health Organization (WHO) has begun to quantify a few specific
health outcomes influenced by climatic factors, as part of its large
international Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) (Ezzati et al., 2004)
Figure-23 : impacts of climate change and global warming on human health. (source, WHO)
The
impacts of climate on human health will not be evenly distributed
around the world. Developing country populations, particularly in Small
Island States, arid and high mountain zones, and in densely populated
coastal areas, are considered to be particularly vulnerable
3.1.9 Food security:
Degradation
of natural resources is likely to hinder increases in agricultural
productivity and could dim optimistic assessments of the prospects of
satisfying growing world food demand at acceptable environmental
cost.’(IPCC, 2001, Working Group II). Food security is a central concept
in this reasoning. Soil degradation is seen as one of the major
challenges for global agriculture.
Agriculture
is important for food security in two ways: it produces the food people
eat; and (perhaps even more important) it provides the primary source
of livelihood for 36 percent of the world’s total workforce (ILO, 2007).
In the heavily populated countries of Asia and the Pacific, this share
ranges from 40 to 50 percent, and in sub-Saharan Africa,
two-thirds of the working population still make their living from
agriculture (ILO, 2007). If agricultural production in the low-income
developing countries of Asia and Africa
is adversely affected by climate change, the livelihoods of large
numbers of the rural poor will be put at risk and their vulnerability to
food insecurity increased.
Temperature;
Most plant processes related to growth and yield are highly temperature
dependent. The optimum growth temperature frequently corresponds to the
optimum temperature for photosynthesis, the process by which plants
absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and convert it to sugars used
for energy and growth. Temperature also affects the rate of plant
development. Higher temperatures speed annual crops through their
developmental phases. This shortens the life cycle of determinate
species like grain crops, which only set seed once and then stop
producing. Figure illustrates the temperature effects on photosynthesis
and crop growth duration. It shows that for a variety currently being
grown in a climate near its optimum, a temperature increase of several
degrees could reduce photosynthesis and shorten the growing period. Both
of these effects will tend to reduce yields.
Figure-24;
temperature effects on net photosynthesis, and effects of temperature
deviation from normal temperature on developmental rate; (Source: parry,
1990)
Results of recent studies suggest that substantial decreases in cereal production potential in Asia
could be likely by the end of this century as a consequence of climate
change. However, regional differences in the response of wheat, maize
and rice yields to projected climate change could likely be significant
(Parry et al.,1999;. In Bangladesh,
production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively, by
the year 2050 (Faisal and Parveen,2004) so we can imagine the future
situation of our country.
Doubled
CO2 climates could decrease rice yields, even in irrigated low-lands,
in many prefectures in central and southern Japan by 0 to 40% (Nakagawa
et al.,2003) through the occurrence of heat-induced floret sterility
(Matsui and Omasa, 2002). Crop simulation modeling studies based on
future climate change scenarios indicate that substantial loses are
likely in rain-fed wheat in South and South-East-Asia (Fischer et
al.,2002). For example, a 0.5° C rise in winter temperature would reduce
wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare in India
(Lal et al., 1998; Kalra et al., 2003). More recent studies suggest a 2
to 5% decrease in yield potential of wheat and maize for a temperature
rise of 0.5 to 1.5°C in India
(Aggarwal, 2008). Studies also suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air
temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12% in China (Lin et al., 2004).
Figure
25; Projected climate change impact on agriculture Gross domestic
production(GDP) and cereal production in 2080; Source: International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
The impact of climate change on live stock farming in Africa
was examined by Seo and Mendelsohn (2006a,b). They showed that a
warming of 2.5°C could increase the income of small livestock farms by
26% (+US$1.4billion). This increase is projected to come from stock
expansion. Further increases in temperature would then lead to a gradual
fall in net revenue e per animal. A warming of 5°C would probably
increase the income of small livestock farms by about 58%
(+US$3.2billion), largely as a result of stock increase (Rosenzweig et
al., 2001). By contrast, a warming of 2.5°C would be likely to decrease
the income of large livestock farms by 22%(–US$13billion) and a warming
of 5°C would probably reduce income by as much as 35% (–US$20billion)
(.
The
higher temperatures are beneficial for small farms that keep goats and
sheep because it is easy to substitute animals that are heat-tolerant,
and contrast, large farms are more dependent on species such as cattle,
which are not heat-tolerant (Mendelsohn, 2006) Increased precipitation
is likely to be harmful to grazing animals because it implies a shift
from grass land to forests and an increase in harmful disease vectors,
and also a shift from livestock to crops.
Figure-26: temperature ranges in which farm animal performance is most efficient. (Source parry1990)
3.1.10 Emergence of new pest and disease:
There
is clear evidence that climate change is altering the
distribution, incidence and intensity of animal and plant pests and
diseases such as Bluetongue, a sheep disease that is moving north into
more temperate zones of Europe. Cannon (Raymond J. C. et al 2004) found
examples of plant pests whose distribution is shifting in the
United Kingdom and other parts of Europe, most likely due to
climatic factors. Migrant moths of the Old World bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera)
had a phenomenal increase in the United Kingdom from 1969-2004 and
there have been outbreaks at the northern edge of its range in
Europe; cottony cushion scale (Icerya purchasi)
populations appear to be spreading northwards perhaps as a
consequence of global warming; and cottony camellia scale (Pulvinaria – Chloropulvinaria – floccifera)
has become much more common in the United Kingdom, extending its range
northwards in England and increasing its host range in the last
decade or so, which is almost certainly in response to
climate change(Raymond J. C. et al 2004)
The range of the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) has extended northward from central and southern Europe into Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark. The
oak processionary moth’s northward progression was due to
improved synchrony of egg hatch and reduction of late frosts(
Hugh,2000) . He also found that the massive population buildup of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)
and its northward progression in the North American Pacific Northwest
has most likely been due to a combination of warmer winter
temperatures, reduced episodes of under bark mortality and
increased drought which weakened the trees. Kiratani (2007) 2
reported on the polar extension of several plant pests in Japan over the period 1965 to 2000. Yukawa has found that about 40 of the 250 butterfly species in Japan
have exhibited northward range extensions in recent years (see Annex
3). A particular case study reported by Yukawa showed that Nezara viridula,
a tropical and subtropical crop pest, is gradually moving northward
in southwestern Japan, possibly due to global warming,
replacing the more temperate species Nezara antennata.
In addition, unforeseen emergence of “new” diseases and pests
has been relatively common. New vectors, selection and recombination
of disease genotypes may occur when animal species and breeds and plant
species and varieties mix or when insect pests and vectors are
introduced without their natural enemies. Change in climate resulting in
changes in species composition and interactions will augment the
emergence of unexpected events, including the emergence of new diseases
and pests.
Climate
change will especially impact vector-borne animal diseases due
to the effects of climate change on the arthropod vectors and
macro-parasites of animals due to the climate effects on the free
stages of these parasites( Diarmid;2007). Climate change may also result
in new transmission modalities and different host species. Although
developing countries are already subject to an enormous animal disease
burden, both developing and developed countries will be subject
to increased incidence or newly emerging diseases that are difficult
to predict. Temperate countries will be particularly vulnerable to
invasions by exotic arthropod-borne virus diseases and macroparasites
(cannon,2002).
Drivers
of plant pest change include increases in temperature, variability in
rainfall intensity and distribution, change in seasonality, drought, CO2
concentration in the atmosphere and extreme events (e.g. hurricanes,
storms), intrinsic pest characteristics (e.g. diapause, number of
generations, minimum, maximum and optimum growth temperature of fungi,
interaction with the host) and intrinsic ecosystem characteristics
(e.g. monoculture, biodiversity) also affect change. Emerging pests are
often plant pests of related species known as “new encounter” pests,
which come into contact with new hosts that do not necessarily have an
appropriate level of resistance, or are plant pests introduced without
their biological control agents (in particular, insect pests, nematodes
and weeds).
Any
increase in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events,
including droughts, heat waves, windstorms, or floods, could also
disrupt the predator-prey relationships that normally keep pest
populations in check(World Health Organization, Geneva, 1996) . An
explosion of the rodent population that damaged the grain crop in Zimbabwe
in 1994, after 6 years of drought had eliminated many rodent predators,
shows how altered climate conditions can intensify pest problems. The
effect of climate on pests may add to the effect of other factors such
as the overuse of pesticides and the loss of biodiversity that already
contribute to plant pest and disease outbreaks [McMichael et al,1996).
Those
scenarios are show very alarming consequences for the world,
particularly for developing countries. Because there is a lack of
institutional and financial capacity in those countries.
3.1.11 Climate change conflict:
The main consequences of climate change are land losses, fresh water
scarcity, sea food losses, losses of agricultural field productivity,
sea food losses, etc. but climate change became threat to the global
peach.
Many
scholars argue that there is a relationship between that climate change
and conflict. Barnett (2001a, b; 2003) explores ways in which climate
change might lead to conflict. He argues that ‘because sovereignty over
delineated territory is the material substrata of national security,
then physical processes such as sea- level rise may undermine national
security in serious ways’ (Barnett, 2001b: 4).
‘For
centuries, wars have been fought for territorial expansion, ideological
or religious dominance, and national pride. In the future, as climate
change progresses and its effects become more pronounced, conflicts over
natural resources could increasingly take centre-stage’.( Byers &
Dragojlovic,2004)
The conflict in Darfur is most known case. They claim that the conflict in Darfur is probably linked to the changing climate in the Sahel region of North Africa.
The climate change has forced nomadic herders to move into adjoining
farming are as for longer periods of time, ‘often outstaying their
welcome. As competition for fertile land and access to water
intensified, ‘numerous local clashes broke out and the herders and
farmers began to acquire more deadly weapons’ (Byers & Dragojlovic,
2004).
Mark
Halle of the World Conservation Union stated in the foreword of an
expert report to the OECD in 1999 that ‘the relationship between
environment and security feels right’, and that ‘it seems intuitively
correct to assume a direct correlation between environmental degradation
on the one hand and social disruption and conflict on the other’
(Halle et al., 1999).
Changes
in global climate and atmospheric composition are likely to have an
impact on most of these( agriculture, forest, and wetland) goods and
services, with significant impacts on socioeconomic systems (Winnett,
1998), and climate change is likely to interact with other global
changes, including population growth and migration, economic growth,
urbanization, and changes in land use and resource degradation.
The
most dangerous bad impact of climate change is the food scarcity
(Winnett, 1998).Agriculture, fisheries sector are directly environment
depended. In case of Bangladesh
the agriculture is totally seasonal. Small fluctuation causes huge
loss. So food security as the main security issue of the future,
outlining competition over fishing rights and water conflicts between Bangladesh and India
among the future scenarios (Lester Brown 1977). He argued that
militaries are incapable of solving the challenges posed by the
deterioration of biophysical systems.
The
widely-publicized report prepared for the US Department of Defense
(Schwartz & Randall, 2003) presents a scenario for rapid climatic
change, and the possible implications for US
national security. According to this report, the result of climate
change could then be significant drop in the human carrying capacity of
the Earth’s environment. The report then explores how scenarios of
abrupt climate change could ‘potentially de-stabilize the geo-political
environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to
resource constraints’ (Schwartz & Randall, 2003) such as food short-
ages, decrease in the availability of clean fresh water, floods and
droughts, and disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea
ice and storminess.
So we are the people of Bangladesh facing another consequence of climate change, conflict with India.
3.1.12 Extreme event:
The
observed changes in the global climate during the 20th century are
described in the report of Working Group I of the IPCC. Extreme events
are closely associated with changes in temperature and precipitation,
and with the frequency of events. Extreme events Altered frequencies and
intensities of extreme weather, together with sea level rise, are
expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems
(Table ). (WGII IPCC).Examples for selected extremes and sectors are
shown in Table
Table
4: Examples of possible impacts of climate change due to changes in
extreme weather and climate events, based on projections to the mid to
late 21st century. These do not take into account any changes or
developments in adaptive capacity. The likelihood estimates in column
two relate to the phenomena listed in column one.
Source: Working group I, IPCC
a) See Working Group I Fourth Assessment Table 3.7 for further details regarding definitions.
b) Warming of the most extreme days and nights each year.
c)
Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional
weather systems. It is defined as the highest 1% of hourly values of
observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.
d)
In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is
higher than in the reference period. The effect of changes in regional
weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed.
New
evidences on recent trends, particularly on the increasing tendency in
the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in Asia over the
last century and in to the 21st century (Penner et al. 2001), are
briefly discussed below and summarized in Table
.In South-East Asia, extreme weather events associated with El-Niño
were reported to be more frequent and intense in the past 20years
(Trenberth and Hoar, 1997; Aldhous, 2004). Significantly longer
heat-wave duration has been observed in many countries of Asia, as
indicated by pronounced warming trends and several cases of severe
heat-waves (De and Mukhopadhyay,1998;Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Zhai
et al.,1999;).Generally, the frequency of occurrence of more intense
rainfall events in many parts of Asia has increased, causing severe
floods, landslides, and debris and mud flows, while the number of rainy
days and total annual amount of precipitation has decreased (Zhai et
al.,1999; Khan et al.,2000; Zhai,2004). However, there are reports that
the frequency of extreme rainfall in some countries has exhibited a
decreasing tendency (Manton etal.,2001; Kanai et al.,2004).
Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in many parts of Asia
are attributed largely to a rise in temperature, particularly during
the summer and normally drier months, and during ENSO events (Webster et
al., 1998). Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of
tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have increased over the
last few decades(FanandLi,2005). In contrast, cyclones originating from
the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased
(Lal,2001). In both cases, the damage caused by intense cyclones has
risen significantly in the affected countries, particularly India,
China, Philippines, Japan, Vietnam and Cambodia, Iran and Tibetan
Plateau (PAGASA, 2001;ABI, 2005; GCOS,2005a, b).
Table 5 : Summary of observed changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalie
Source: Working group I, IPCC
Scientists
predict we will see more heavy rainfall days in the future than we
currently get. The Environment Agency Sustainable Development Unit, said
in June 2001: “Major floods that have only happened before say, every
100 years on average, may now start to happen every 10 or 20 years. The
flood season may become longer and there will be flooding in places
where there has never been any before”.So, the risk of flooding looks
greater throughout the whole World.
The UK
has experienced devastating floods throughout the last five years,
which have affected thousands of people and caused millions of pounds
worth of damage. Five million people in England and Wales
are now at risk from flooding every year and two million homes have
been built in the natural floodplain of rivers or the coast and are
vulnerable to flooding. The total financial cost of all of the property,
land and assets in these areas has been put at a value of $214 billion
(lal.2003).
For
many people around the World, particularly in developing countries, the
dangers associated with flooding are serious. Houses, or even shacks,
in many countries can be destroyed instantly as a result of heavy rain
and flooding. In recent years flooding in China and Bangladesh
have left thousands of homeless. Whether those floods are due to
climate change is difficult to say, however they were examples of how
some areas in the World struggle to cope with such situations.
By examining, the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 (P. J. Webster et al 2005). The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean.
During the hurricane season of 2004, there were 14 named storms in the North Atlantic, of which 9 achieved hurricane intensity (Lunt et al. 2005). Four of these hurricanes struck the southeast United States in rapid succession, causing considerable damage and disruption.
Recently, a causal relationship between increasing hurricane frequency and intensity and increasing sea surface temperature (SST) has been posited assuming an acceleration of the hydrological cycle arising from the nonlinear relation between saturation vapor pressure and temperature
Numerous studies have addressed the issue of changes in the global frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the warming world. The basic conceptual understanding of hurricanes suggests that there could be a relationship between hurricane activity and SST. It is well established that SST > 26°C is a requirement for tropical cyclone formation in the current climate
Hurricane intensity shows a substantial change in the intensity distribution of hurricanes globally. The number of category 1 hurricanes has remained approximately constant but has decreased monotonically as a percentage of the total number of hurricanes throughout the 35-year period (P. J. Webster et al 2005). The trend of the sum of hurricane categories 2 and 3 is small also both in number and percentage. In contrast, hurricanes in the strongest categories (4 + 5) have almost doubled in number (50 per pentad in the 1970s to near 90 per pentad during the past decade) and in proportion (from around 20% to around 35% during the same period) (Woth 2005). These changes occur in all of the ocean basins. A summary of the number and percent of storms by category is given in Table 6 binned for the years 1975–1989 and 1990–2004.
Table 6:
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5
for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean
basins.
Basin
|
Period
| |||
East Pacific Ocean
West Pacific Ocean
North Atlantic
Southwestern Pacific
North Indian
South Indian
|
1975–1989
|
1990–2004
| ||
Number
|
Percentage
|
Number
|
Percentage
| |
36
85
16
10
1
23
|
25
25
20
12
8
18
|
49
116
25
22
7
50
|
35
41
25
28
25
34
|
Source (P. J. Webster et al 2008)
Table 7: Top five deadliest extreme weather events 1970-2002
3.2 Positive impact of climate change: Though
climate change is a threat for the mankind, especially for the poor
people, some developed countries claim that the will be happy with
climate change. Some of the good impacts are given bellow:
3.2.1 Increased food supply:
Alarmists
will tell that global warming endangers the world's food supply. This
is because they do not have a basic understanding of agronomic
production (G. Zavarzin,1999). Russian scientists claim that global
warming is an advantage to their agro production. They (G.
Zavarzin,1999) explain it as, that there are three things that crops
need more than anything else to grow and produce high yields: heat,
moisture, and carbon dioxide. Some crops can get too much heat,
but even the worst predictions of global warming alarmists don't call
for such temperatures. In most cases, increased temperatures will
increase yields (kokorine, 1999). Moreover, millions of acres that are
now too cold in Russia
and other cold countries to grow crops will become warm enough
(kokorine, 1999). Furthermore, in traditional crop-growing areas, it is
entirely possible that, with a shorter, warmer winter, farmers will be
able to plant their crops earlier and harvest them later. What this
means is that they might be able to get two crops planted and
harvested in one year, effectively doubling the yield. And ultimately
production increases. that the predicted wetter and warmer climate over
much of Russia may indeed result in higher crop yields and in the expansion of crop-growing areas (Alcamo
et, al, 2003). But expansion could be limited by poor soils, lack of
infrastructure, and/or remoteness from agricultural markets. Better
conditions for crops could also mean better conditions for pests,
diseases and weeds.
Meanwhile, a dryer and warmer climate is predicted for the current crop growing and exporting areas of southeastern Russia. This could threaten productivity and cause more frequent years of bad harves (Jeremy,2001). Thus, gains in Russia 's potential new crop areas may be cancelled out by losses in current crop production areas.
3.2.2 Climate change could enhance forest production:
Andrew
Burton, an associate professor at Michigan Tech and head of the
National Institute for Climatic Change Research's Midwestern Regional
Center, is part of a team of researchers that has been monitoring and
measuring the temperature, moisture levels and nitrogen deposited by
acid rain or varying levels of experimental nitrogen at four forest
sites ranging from northwestern to southern Michigan since 1987. He's
found that the trees grow faster at higher temperatures and store more
carbon at greater concentrations of nitrogen, a chemical constituent of
acid rain, providing there is sufficient moisture.
It may well be that increasing temperature and nitrogen deposition are good things, up to a point, (Burton, 2006).Increasing temperature, precipitation and nutrient availability have good impact on productivity and health (Burton ,2006) . Forest
productivity and species diversity typically increase with, although
species may differ in terms of their tolerance (Das, 2004). As a key
factor that regulates many terrestrial biogeochemical processes, such
as soil respiration, litter decomposition, nitrogen mineralization and
nitrification, denitrification, methane emission, fine root dynamics,
plant productivity and nutrient uptake, temperature changes are likely
to drastically alter forests and ecosystem dynamics in many ways (Norby
et al., 2007). The impacts of elevated temperatures on trees and plants
will vary throughout the year since warming may relieve plant stress
during colder periods but increase it during hotter periods (Garrett et
al., 2006).
He explained that the rise in temperature is extending the growing season, So far, Burton
and colleagues have measured 10 to 11-day longer growing seasons. “Our
growing season isn't that long in the first place,” he pointed out, “so
10 or 11 days is significant.” A longer growing season could benefit the
timber industry, enabling them to harvest more wood (Garrett et al.,
2006).
3.2.3 Fewer cold-related deaths:
Many, many more people die from cold than from heat (though the cold
related deaths don't get as much media attention) (Neilson,1995). The
warmer it gets, the fewer people will die from cold. Moreover, global
warming models all predict that the coldest times of the year, the
coldest times of the day, and the coldest parts of the world will warm
much more than the warmest times of the year, times of the day, and
parts of the world (IPCC, 2003). So, the positive effect of warming in
the cold areas/times will more than offset, by a huge margin in fact,
the negative effect of warming in the warm areas/times.
3.2.4 Energy.
A warming climate holds the possibility of milder and shorter heating
seasons, which in turn may lead to reduced Russian energy demand.
Increased water availability—particularly along those Siberian rivers
that are used for hydroelectric power—should result in increased power
production in certain parts of the country. However, existing and
future energy infrastructure for the all-important petroleum industry
will experience more pronounced challenges— structural subsidence, risks
associated with river crossings, and construction difficulties as
permafrost thaws earlier and deeper, impeding the construction of vital
new production areas.
3.2.5 Water supply: Many parts of Russia’s
massive territory will experience increases in the availability of
water, including much of Siberia, the Far North, and northwestern Russia.
This change will bring certain positive impacts—including for
hydroelectric generation (above). However, managing the increased flows
will pose other problems, especially when these increased flows
coincide with extreme weather events such as downpours, or springtime
ice-clogged floods. In addition, increasing water shortages are
predicted for southern parts of European Russia, areas that already
experience significant socioeconomic and sociopolitical stresses.
Moreover, a number of densely populated Russian regions that are already
subject to water shortages are expected to face even more pronounced
difficulties in decades to come.
Those
are the most important positive and negative consequences of climate
change. Though climate change has some good impact but the negatives are
more and seriously harmful to mankind.
CHAPTER 4
International Mitigation Measures
4.1.The Kyoto Protocol:
“The Kyoto Protocol was the most complex non-military treaty negotiations in history.” — The Wall Street Journal
“It’s an historic agreement. If countries who sign the treaty put in place the requisite policies and actions, the world will be set on a new course, one which is less dependent on fossil fuels, less polluting and less a threat to human health.” — Jonathan Lash, President, World Resources Institute
After 48-hours of non-stop talks, 160 nations negotiated a global treaty on December 11, 1997,
to limit the production of greenhouse gases. Known as the Kyoto
Protocol (Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change) after the Japanese city where the final marathon
bargaining session was held, this treaty will have profound implications
on our economy and lifestyles. Although the majority of the world’s
nations have negotiated the treaty, it still has to be formally signed
and ratified. At least 55 countries representing 55 percent of emissions
from developed countries, plus Central and Eastern Europe, have to sign the treaty by March 1999, and then take the legal steps necessary to ratify it.
4.1.1 Historical Background of Kyoto Protocol
In
1990, the United Nations General Assembly established the
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to negotiate the UNFCCC and
merely after 15 months the Convention was adopted in Rio de Janeiro on 9 May 1992.
Under the UNFCCC, the parties agreed to stabilize the GHG emissions in
the atmosphere “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.”(Article 2, UNFCCC).
Countries
listed in Annex I agreed to work to return GHG emissions levels to 1990
and “to demonstrate a reversal in the trend towards growing emissions
before the year 2000.” (Article 4.2. (b), UNFCCC)
Also,
the UNFCCC stated that Annex I countries “may implement policies and
measures jointly with other parties.” (Article 4.2. (a), UNFCCC). This
is a brief reference to the so called “flexible mechanisms” of Joint
Implementation (JI), Emission Trading (ET) and Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM), further implemented in the Kyoto Protocol.
The UNFCCC was designed to be only a framework agreement depending upon
subsequent protocols for implementation. It established a governing
body known as the Conference of the Parties (COP). The COP will meet
annually in order to deal with issues related to climate change.
Signed and ratified
Signed, ratification pending
Signed, but not ratified
Non-signatory
Figure-27; Participation in the Kyoto Protocol (source, Wikipedia)
4.1.2 The key elements of treaty
The commitments agreed to at Kyoto apply only to 38 developed nations and the countries in transition in Central and Eastern Europe (Russia, Ukraine,
etc.). While individual nations have different targets, the overall
reduction in greenhouse gases from 1990 levels is 5.2 percent. Rather
than setting a single year as the deadline, the treaty allows countries
to average their emissions over a five-year period (2008-2012), to allow
for variations in economic growth, weather and other factors. (Details
on the six greenhouse gases covered by the Treaty and their chemical
properties are listed in an accompanying chart.)
The
treaty also has a number of “flexibility provisions” to allow countries
to find the lowest cost options to meet their targets. These include:
investing in activities which store carbon; emissions banking and
trading; and joint implementation of projects with developing countries.
Let’s look at these in more detail:
4.1.2.1Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere:
Countries
can claim “credits” for investing in tree-planting or other activities
which take carbon out of the atmosphere. These are called carbon sinks
(see glossary). The rapid cutting of the earth’s forests since the 19th
century accounts for about half the build-up of carbon dioxide in our
atmosphere, calculates Stephen Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University.
Countries that help reverse this trend by expanding their forest cover
can claim credits to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. In
essence, each nation that implements the Kyoto Protocol will have a
greenhouse gas “bank account.” Rules for calculating credits and
deductions of emissions and offsets will be the subject of negotiations
at the next U.N. climate change conference in Buenos Aires in November 1998.
4.1.2.2 Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation:
The
Clean Development Mechanism provides an encouragement for
industrialized countries to invest in initiatives in developing
countries that cut net greenhouse gas emissions. Appropriate clean
energy projects could include: building a small-scale hydro plant or
replacing an old, coal-fired electrical generating plant with a
high-efficiency natural gas turbine. Under the clean development
mechanism, the savings in carbon dioxide emissions will be recorded as a
credit, which will be shared among the parties to the transaction.
Generally,
investments in developing countries offer opportunities for greater
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per dollar than in developed
countries. Industrial economies have already achieved higher levels of
efficiency in their factories and infrastructure. Furthermore, the
higher growth rates in many developing countries create more
opportunities for earlier deployment of energy efficient technologies.
Joint
implementation is the name given to projects carried out in partnership
among developed nations and economies in transition in Central and Eastern Europe. For example, it has been estimated that Russia
loses a significant amount of its oil and gas as a result of leaks in
pipelines, and inefficient refining and materials handling. Many firms
from Alberta’s oil patch already have contracts to transfer management and engineering skills to Russia’s energy industry. Under the Kyoto Protocol, these projects may earn emissions reduction credits.
4.1.2.3 Emissions trading:
The Kyoto
agreement permits the emissions trading among countries. It provides
for countries with commitments under the treaty to buy and sell units of
emission reduction among themselves. The kind of valuation system that
would apply to such transactions, and the identification of an
international body to monitor and regulate this trade will be determined
at future negotiations.
4.1.3 The participation of developing countries
Developing
countries did not commit to specific reductions, primarily for two
reasons. Their priorities are economic growth and poverty reduction; and
secondly, industrialized countries consume far more energy, and thus
produce far more greenhouse gases. It has been estimated that since the
Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, Europe and North America have produced 85 percent of the human- induced carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today.
The developing nations see Kyoto
as a test of whether the world’s economic superpowers are serious about
climate change. But while developing countries didn’t create the
problem, they will have to be part of the solution, because many—China, India, South Korea and Brazil—now
have large, rapidly expanding industrial sectors. Indeed, sometime
after 2015, developing countries will produce more than 50 percent of
the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Clearly, global warming cannot be
addressed without the involvement of developing countries. Through its
“Clean Development Mechanism,” the Kyoto Protocol will encourage
industrialized countries to invest in “green” projects that transfer
climate-friendly efficient technologies to the developing world.
4.2 Montreal Protocol
The
Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer is an
international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out
the production of a number of substances believed to be responsible for
ozone depletion.
Purpose of Montreal Protocol:
The treaty is structured around several groups of halogenated
hydrocarbons that have been shown to play a role in ozone depletion. All
of these ozone depleting substances contain either chlorine or bromine
(substances containing only fluorine do not harm the ozone layer). For a
table of ozone-depleting substances see:
4.2.1 Background
In
1974 by University of California researchers Sherwood Rowland and Mario
Molina, first discover that chlorine atoms released by the breakdown of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the upper atmosphere could precipitate a
chemical chain reaction which would seriously damage the stratospheric
ozone layer that protects all life from dangerous ultraviolet radiation
(UV-B) emitted by the sun. This theory became the trace back of Montreal protocol. The theory create huge of controversy,
In
1976 the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) released a report that
confirmed the scientific credibility of the ozone depletion hypothesis.
And in 1985, British Antarctic Survey.
That
same year, 20 nations, including most of the major CFC producers,
signed the Vienna Convention, which established a framework for
negotiating international regulations on ozone-depleting substances.
The treaty was opened for signature on September 16, 1987 and entered into force on January 1, 1989 followed by a first meeting in Helsinki, May 1989. Since then, it has undergone seven revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992 (Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997 (Montreal), and 1999 (Beijing).
It is believed that if the international agreement is adhered to, the
ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050. Due to its widespread
adoption and implementation it has been hailed as an example of
exceptional international co-operation with Kofi Annan quoted as saying
that "perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date
has been the Montreal Protocol".
4.2.2 Ratification: At present, 195 of 196 United Nations member states have ratified the original Montreal Protocol (see external link below). That one that has not as of April 2009 is Timor-Leste. Fewer countries have ratified each consecutive amendment. Only 154 countries have signed the Beijing Amendment.
The substances in Group I of annex A are:
1. CFC-11 (CCl3F) Trichlorofluorometh
2. CFC-12 (CCl2F2) Dichlorodifluoromethane
3. CFC-113 (C2F3Cl3) 1,1,2-Trichlorotrifluoroethan
4. CFC-114 (C2F4Cl2) Dichlorotetrafluoroethane
5. CFC-115 (C2F5Cl) Monochloropentafluoroethane
These two treaties are now internationally very important.
CHAPTER 5
Perception of Developed and Developing Countries
5.1. Perception of Developed Countries:
5.1.1 Perception of USA:
The United States
is the home of 5 percent of the world’s population and produces nearly
18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions (COB,2009). As of 2005,
the U.S. produced more emissions per year than any other nation, although based on projected growth rates China may now be the largest emitter.
Figure
28: annual growth rate of highest emitters of the world Includes
emissions associated with deforestation and land-use changes (Source:
IEA; EPA; WRI; UNFCCC; McKinsey analysis)
As a physically large nation with a highly developed, service-based economy, the U.S.
emits a greater proportion of GHGs from the buildings, transportation,
and electric power sectors than do other great industrialized countries
that are more compact and densely populated, like Germany and Japan. According to an analysis of U.S. government forecasts, the nation's GHG emissions are projected to rise by 2.5 gigatons, from 7.2 gigatons CO2
per year in 2005 to 9.7 gigatons in 2030, at an average annual rate of
1.2 percent. Though the annual rate of change may appear small, it would
produce a 35 percent increase in projected annual emissions by 2030
(larson et al.2007)
Table 8: comparison of GHGs emission between USA and world
5.1.1.1 Domestic perception of USA:
· Science about global warming is not true;
The increase in our atmospheric carbon dioxide during the 20th and
early 21st centuries has produced no deleterious effects upon Earth’s
weather and climate. There is absolutely no correlation between the
increase in CO2 and average worldwide and US temperatures. And,
predictions of harmful climatic effects do not have experimental
knowledge or have any scientific basis( acc0rding to John Coleman,2007)
· China, India those uses coal as a primary energy are the big polluter (EIA,2007)
· Their
economist suggests that they can more easily adopt with climate change,
rather than mitigation, because the mitigation measures directly affect
the GDP, their economy, job market. They are capable to adapt with
climate change, but not to mitigate this for rest of the world (
according to McMURTY,2002)
· Kyoto protocol is a politics to the developed countries the bush administration simply deny the climate change. U.S. President George W. Bush has opposed both U.S. Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and any national plan that mandates reductions in GHGs (Boger, 2008)
· They only take the mitigation measure when developed countries take their responsibility.USA think that if Kyoto protocol is responsible to halt the climate change, this treaty must provide restriction to third world counties.
· They have no historical responsibility. CO2
is not a pollutant. It is a trace element essential to plant growth and
a natural product of human breathing and many other normal processes.
Yes, it is way up in the atmosphere; but still it is only 37 of every
100,000 atmospheric molecules. Despite all the shouting by global
warming advocates that CO2, carbon dioxide, is the smoking gun of global
warming, there is absolutely no proven evidence that CO2 has effected
temperatures and plenty of evidence it has not.( acc0rding to John Coleman,2007)
· In
addition to opposing national mandatory caps, the Bush Administration
has been accused repeatedly by its own government scientists of trying
to muffle and even suppress scientific research findings showing the
full impacts of global warming (COB,2009). Perhaps the most high-profile
scientist to speak out publicly is the Director of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space
Studies’ James Hansen. Hansen said in October of 2004: “In my more than
three decades in government, I have never seen anything approaching
the degree to which information flow from scientists to the public has
been screened and controlled as it is now.”
· In
the absence of a national direction, many regions, states, and
municipalities have begun to implement policies to reduce emissions on
their own and in concert with other regions, states, and municipalities.
The policies address a variety of sectors – in particular the
electricity and transportation sectors and may aim to increase energy
efficiency and renewable energy use (COB,2009)
5.1.1.2 Current and proposed U.S. climate change policy:
While the current Congress has enacted various policies that are likely to reduce GHG emissions, the United States
currently has no comprehensive national policy to specifically address
GHG emissions (Boger, 2008). In February 2002, President Bush announced a
goal to reduce “greenhouse gas intensity” – the ratio of GHG emissions
to economic output expressed in gross domestic product (GDP) – by 18% in
2012(Boger,2008). Since then, President Bush has proposed additional
voluntary measures to achieve this reduction. A GHG intensity goal,
however, can decrease the carbon intensity of the economy while allowing
GHG emissions to increase, and the continued rise in U.S. emissions indicate that this type of goal will not stabilize or reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States (Larsen et al, 2007)
Figure 29: Government preference case for U.S. emission, Source: U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007)
The question of how to address climate change and is still hotly debated in the United States.
The question of how to address climate change and is still hotly debated in the United States.
A January 2007 Pew Research Center poll shows that 77% of U.S.
citizens believe that the earth is warming, but there is far less
agreement as to the cause (47% believe it is due to human activity; 20%
believe it is due to natural causes; 16% aren’t sure). In addition,
polls generally agree that of environmental issues, Americans consider
global warming to be most critical,( Pew Research Center for People and
the Press,2007) but they view global warming as a relatively low
priority compared to other issues of the day.
To the limited extent that the U.S.
has enacted national policies that affect climate change, it has done
so through sectoral efforts. Perhaps the most significant policies
affecting U.S. GHGs have been signed as laws that affect energy use, in
the form of the 2005 Energy Policy Act and the 2007 Energy Independence
and Security Act.
5.1.2 Perception of RUSSIA:
Russia
is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases with its 1,700
million tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year and a steady projected
annual growth rate, thereby significantly contributing to climate
change. So for the success of the attempts to reducing the tide of
global warming and mitigate its effects Russian action is therefore
vital. While certain Russian experts believe that a warmer
climate could be advantageous, climate change is generally expected to
have terrible consequences that will indirectly affect Russian economic
well-being.
Figure 30 : Share of Russia's CO2 emissions in the world, Source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2003
Russia's GHG emissions are calculated on the basis of forecasts of CO2
emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion since their share in overall
national emissions is more than 80%. The following figure represenets
the history and the prediction of the dynamics and share of different
GHGs in total amount of Russian GHG emissions up to 2020.
Figure 31: the use of fossil fuel, past scenario and future prediction
Source: RF Ministry of economic development and trade
5.1.2.1 National perception of Russia:
1. Climate change provides greater advantages to Russia. Russia
is the only pollutant country which does not agree to take any
mitigation measure to reduce GHG emission. The most important advantages
of climate change in Russia will likely include the following:
Energy:
A warming climate holds the possibility of milder and shorter heating
seasons, which in turn may lead to reduced Russian energy demand.
Increased water availability-particularly along those Siberian Rivers
that are used for hydroelectric power- should result in increased power
production in certain parts of the country.
Water: Many parts of Russia’s
massive territory will experience increases in the availability of
water, including much of Siberia, the Far North, and northwestern Russia. This change will bring certain positive impacts—including for hydroelectric generation.
Agriculture:
As growing seasons become longer and precipitation patterns change,
using lands for agricultural purposes that previously would have been
too far north- too cold for too much of the year- will become possible.
Raising new crops and new varieties of crops that are currently grown
in Russia also could become possible.
2. Though Russia
has some advantages from climate change, but they face some
disadvantages too. But they do not agree to mitigate climate change.
Think that they have the ability to adapt with climate change.
5.1.2.2 Domestic policy of Russia:
Though Russia has much more advantages derived from the climate change, they ratified Kyoto protocol and developed a environmental policy o mitigate climate change. Russia’s
President signed it into law in 2004 on the ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) and
it entered into force in February 2005. Russia is now bound to limit anthropogenic GHG emissions by the end of the Protocol 1st
commitment period (2008-2012) at the level of country’s GHG emissions
in 1990 while the Marrakech agreements of 2001 establish carbon sink
targets of 33 Mt per year for Russia.
According
to Russia's Ministry of Economic Development (MEDT), Russia will not
only meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol but will have
significant GHG emission quota surplus equal to over 3 billion tons of
CO2-equivalent, which may partly be transferred to the next Kyoto compliance period. Russia
has basically completed the first stage of development of regulations
and legislation needed for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. By its
decision, Russian Government has established a national system of
assessment of GHG emission and sequestration. An AAU (assigned allowance
units) registry has been established. The following actions are taken
by Russia:
1. Relevant
normative acts and regulations have been made by the Russian Federal
Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental monitoring and Ministry
of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation.
2. Russian
Government has also recently approved (May 2007) the National rules
and regulations for Joint Implementation scheme of the Kyoto Protocol,
3. Russia's
prime-minister signed an act of the Russian government that sets up a
legal base for signing and implementing joint implementation (JI)
projects to reduce GHG emissions. 54 such projects offered by Russia are ready for implementation that would result in GHG emission cuts amounting to 79.2 mill tons.
4. Russian regions actively participate in implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.
Figure 32: Interest in the Kyoto Protocol by Russian regions, (Source: V.Gavrilov, 2006)
But there are a number of criticisms about the Russia’s policies; few scientists say those are very weak and false! Some lacking is given below:
1. There
is been not a single JI project has been registered till May 27, 2007,
mainly due to a lack of the proper national legislation concerning Kyoto
Protocol implementation. It is expected that with recent approval by
the Russian Government of the National rules and regulations on JI, this
problem will quickly be solved.
2. It remains ambiguous whether Russia will continue to participate in the Kyoto
process after 2012, or not? A MEDT senior official said, “This will be a
matter to be discussed at international negotiations. It depends
whether we shall manage to protect our interests or not. Then we shall
think if it is worthwhile to join the next period” (Ibid). Some experts
also express concern that Russia may exceed its GHG emission limit and
incur considerable financial losses under the Kyoto Protocol, if carbon
intensity of Russian economy is not radically reduced (A.Kokorbn. Ibid,
p.58).
5.2. Perception of developing countries:
5.2.1 Perception of INDIA:
India
is now the world’s fourth largest emitter of GHG gases. Between 1990
and 2004, emissions increased by 97 per cent—one of the highest rates of
increase in the world. In 2005 india produces about 1.4 GtCO2 (Australian Government, Treasury, 2006). The following graph illustrates the major sources of India’s GHG emissions.
Figure, 33: India’s GHG Emissions by sector (2004)
(Source: Pew Centre on Global Climate Change)
5.2.1.1 National perception of India
India is a participant in the Kyoto Protocol and is the second largest source of CDM emission credits after China. However, like China
it has reportedly rejected the imposition on any binding limits on its
GHG emissions (Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, 2008). India
is concerned to further develop its economy and continue its policies
aimed towards poverty alleviation and appears determined to peruse these
goals in addition to any policies aimed at reducing its GHG emissions
(HRD, 2007/2008).
Despite this, India
has already declared that even as it pursues its social and economic
development objectives, it will not allow its per capita GHG emissions
to exceed the average per capita emissions of the developed countries.
This effectively puts a cap on India‘s emissions, which will be lower if
the developed country partners choose to be more ambitious in reducing
their own emissions (Shyam, 2009).
In common with other developing countries India
considers that the solution to the world’s climate change problems is
primarily the responsibility of the developed industrialized world. It
has resisted efforts for a limit to be placed on its own GHG emissions
(Ramesh, 2009).
5.2.1.2 Domestic climate change policy :
On
30 June 2008, the Indian Prime Ministers Council on Climate Change
released India's National Action Plan on Climate Change. This document
primarily offers a list of eight technological efforts, the pride of
place being given to research and development of solar energy. But the
report does not set any numerical goals for emission reductions or for
energy intensity.This document also lists both new and existing
policies. Many of these policies are already being implemented as part
of the centralized economic plan drawn up by India’s Planning
Commission. The current plan, the 11th, covers the years from
2007–2012. Individual Indian ministries were to submit action plans in
response to this document by December 2008.In addition the government is
seeking to expand the amount of forest cover in India by 1 per cent a
year through to 2012 (The Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, India,
ibid.).
“Our
people have a right to economic and social development and to discard
the ignominy of widespread poverty. For this we need rapid economic
growth. But I also believe that ecologically sustainable development
need not be in contradiction to achieving our growth objectives. In
fact, we must have a broader perspective on development. It must include
the quality of life, not merely the quantitative accretion of goods and
services. Our people want higher standards of living, but they also
want clean water to drink, fresh air to breathe and a green earth to
walk on.”
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh
This citation of Indians Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, definitely expose the perspective of India.
5.2.2 Perception of CHINA:
In 2005 china produces highest amount of Green House Gas, about 7.2 GtCO2 (Australian Government, Treasury,2006). They take the opportunity provided by Kyoto protocol as a developing country. China
is now either the largest or second largest individual contributor to
GHG emissions in the world, behind or near the total GHG emissions of
the United States of America. The following graph illustrates the comparative sources of China’s GHG emissions in 2005.
Figure 34 : Comparative sources of China’s GHG emissions 2005
Source: US Congressional Research Service graph from IEA estimates
in the air have provided the primary rationales for most Chinese clean energy policies to date.
5.2.2.1 National Perception of China
Chinese
negotiators adhere to the principle of ‘common but differentiated’
responsibilities, agreed in the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. They argue that emissions per person in China are low and that raising incomes must be their highest priority. Like Brazil, China
also argues that that industrialized countries bear primary
responsibility for the historical build-up of GHGs and should thus lead
in mitigating emissions domestically. Industrialized countries also, China argues, should assist developing countries to mitigate emissions and adapt to coming climate related changes. ( ibid, pp. 175 -177 )
5.2.2.2 Domestic Chinese Climate Policy
China in recent years has paid serious attention to the linked issues of climate change and clean energy. China
released its National Climate Change Program, In June 2007,. The
program outlines activities both to mitigate GHG emissions and to adapt
to the consequences of potential climate change. Within the Program,
perhaps most challenging is China’s goal to lower its energy intensity (ibid, pp. 175 -177) by 20 per cent by 2010.
Related
goals include more than doubling renewable energy use by 2020,
expansion of both nuclear, gas and renewable generated power to displace
thCe use of coal fired power, closure of inefficient industrial
facilities, tightened efficiency standards for buildings and appliances,
and forest coverage expanded to 20 per cent (Leggett, et al,, 2007)
However, it is a notable feature of this policy that it rejects
mandatory limits on emissions.
5.2.3 Perception of BANGLADESH:
Bangladesh
is one of the lowest contributors of GHG both as a nation and on per
capita basis. We are not at all responsible for the global climate
change, but we are mainly the victims.
Bangladesh produces only 200kg CO2
very tiny amount because. Its economy is agriculture base, has
sufficient amount of natural gases and does not depend coal as like
India (BCAS). Bangladesh
is facing various climate changes impacts and climate related extreme
events due to its location and being a nascent and extremely flay delta.
The country is located between the great Himalayans Mountains in the North with large river systems and the Bay of Bengal in the South. Bangladesh
has been identified by the world scientists as one of the most
vulnerable and potentially one of the most severely impacted countries
by climate change including extreme weather events. Recent extreme event
are supported this prediction. The enormous, forceful and devastating
cyclone Sidr, hitting the coast of Bangladesh
in November 2007, killed several thousands of people and devastated the
lives of over 30 million people (MoEF, 2008). This intensification of
cyclones is also consistent with prediction of Fourth Assessment of the
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
It is apprehended that the possible sea level rise will affect the country by inundating coastal areas of Bangladesh.
A 30-45cm sea level will affect the coastal ecosystems, water and
agriculture and food production. But this will also dislocate about 35
million people from coastal districts by the year 2050. For a 30 cm sea
level rise, it anticipated that next 30 year's development investment
would be wiped out in Bangladesh
(IPCC, 2007). These may create severe problems in rural livelihood,
local, regional and sectoral development as well as in sharing scarce
resources (land, water, forest and fisheries) and thus it will enhance
rural to urban migration and social conflicts in near future.
5.2.3.1 Six Pillars of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy:
The
Bangladesh climate change strategy and action plan emphasizes on both
adaptation and mitigation and is built on six pillars, which include:
food security, social and health; comprehensive disaster management;
infrastructure to protect human lives and assets; mitigation and low
carbon development path, capacity building and institutional
strengthening and research, innovation and knowledge management (The
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008).
The
climate change action plan comprises immediate, short, medium and
long-term programmes. The needs of the poor and vulnerable communities
including women and children will be prioritized in all activities implemented under the action plan. The government of Bangladesh
has already allocated some money to implement actions under the
strategy and trying to get funding for this from development partners.
The government has already got some good responses from donors and
developed country like the UK.
There
is currently a great deal of attention being paid to estimating the
costs for adaptation in developing countries, raising the funds to meet
those costs, and designing international finance mechanisms to channel
these funds to developing countries. However, the preoccupation with
raising funds at the international level for adaptation assumes that,
once funding is available, developing countries have significant
„absorptive capacity‰ to receive and spend this money in a cost
efficient and effective manner to build the adaptive capacity of
vulnerable communities on the ground. Many of the most vulnerable
developing countries and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small
Island Developing States do not have comprehensive climate change
adaptation strategies, policies, or mechanisms in place to deal with the
receipt and disbursement of adaptation funds and the implementation of
adaptation action. However, Bangladesh is currently ahead of the game in this regard. Bangladesh,
has not only taken steps to develop a new climate change strategy and
action plan, but also got assurance for funding from an innovative
Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) for addressing climate change.
5.2.3.2 Immediate and urgent responses to address climate change and its impacts:
Bangladesh
is one of the lowest contributors of GHG both as a nation and on per
capita basis. It is not at all responsible for the global climate
change, but we are mainly the victims. It as a country, which can do
very little to tackle the causes of problem. Hence, we have to work
collectively with the world community. The UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol under the Convention give
it the scope and structure to work together and raise our voice to the
global community and influence global decision making in our favor.
However, Bangladesh
has to work with the alliance of Group-77 and LDC to achieve good
results from the Conference of the Parties (COP) negotiations to reduce
GHG emission and lower the risk from the impacts climate change on
people, society, economy and ecosystems. Bangladesh government actually has no capacity for the mitigation of climate change; its policy is to take adaptive measures (BCAS).
CHAPTER 6
Conflictual Perspectives: Developed Vs developing Countries
Climate
change is a global problem. It is a result of unequal development and
consumption of developed countries. Now this problem became a threat for
developing nations. They asked the developed counties to take the
mitigation measures to halt climate change and vice versa. This
situation creates controversy among developed and developing countries.
The most controversial facts are given below:
6.1. Kyoto protocol:
The Kyoto
protocol is the most prominent international agreement on climate
change. The objective of the protocol is the “stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”,
as mentioned in Article 2 of the UNFCCC.
The UNFCCC agreed to a set of a “common but differentiated responsibilities”. The parties agreed that:
- The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries.
- Per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low.
- The share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs. .
For this above agreement protocol the Kyoto became a hottest topic of controversy between developed and developing countries. Those are given below
6.1.1. Developing countries get an unfair economic advantage:
The developed countries think that the biggest polluter in the world (China) is not restricted from polluting, and coming up fast is India also not restricted. This treaty is a pretty open attack on the west and capitalism (Boger, 2008).
The U.S.
did not support the split between Annex I countries and others. Bush
said of the treaty: “This is a challenge that requires a 100% effort;
ours, and the rest of the worlds. The world's second-largest emitter of
greenhouse gases is the People's Republic of China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto ... America's
unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our
friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary,
my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of
climate change ... Our approach must be consistent with the long-term
goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere”
(Boger, 2008)
According
to CBO, (2009) The Senate’s of united state concerns about developing
country participation in the FCCC process were at least twofold. First,
they think that the developing will get more advantages for the
industrial production. There was also the concern that U.S. manufacturing, and hence U.S.
jobs, would move abroad to take advantage of relaxed environmental
regulations there. Second, the Senate believed that an effective climate
treaty absolutely required developing country participation. They
mentioned that large developing countries were rapidly increasing their
emissions. As for example, some senators pointed out that by 2015 China will become the world’s leading producer of GHGs.
There also an economic concern of developed nations. President Bush claimed that the treaty requirements would harm the U.S.
economy, leading to economic losses of $400 billion and costing 4.9
million jobs. Bush also objected to the exemption for developing
nations(Larson, 2007) . The president’s decision brought heavy criticism
from U.S. allies and environmental groups in the U.S. and around the world
Russia mentioned, “Kyoto
protocol is established due to protect the environment from pollution.
But it permits the developed countries to emit to achieve the goal of
development. India uses coal as their primary energy and India’s
growing consumption is perceived as a major future source of global
warming. So why allow this burden on our economic growth? China
produces cheap good due to low energy efficient technology which create
economic losses to the developed countries” (Zavarzin, 1999).
But developing countries accept the Kyoto
protocol, because developing countries increases their GDP without
taking any measure to protect the environment (lin erda, 22007). These
different perspectives are becoming more complex over time.
6.1.2. Common but differentiated responsibility:
This is the another key principle of Kyoto protocol and more controversial .According
to this key principles, industrialized countries would take the escort
in addressing the climate problem, specially excluding developing
countries from obligatory GHG emissions reductions. And this principle
arise a strong ground of debate between developed developing nations.
According to UNFCCC, this principle is grounded in shared notions of
fairness: the developed countries are disproportionately responsible
for historical GHG emissions and have the greatest capacity to act.
Thus, the Convention makes few demands on the much less responsible and
usually much less capable developing countries. The exclusion of
developing countries became one of the most contentious issues before
and during the Kyoto conference (and remains so), especially because the
United States insisted that developing countries make “meaningful”
contributions to future GHG reduction efforts(Pew Research Center for
People and the Press,2007). These U.S. demands appear to contradict the CBDR principle.
As
a nascent principle of international environmental law, “common but
differentiated responsibility” evolved from the notion of the “common
heritage of mankind.” The latter concept gained stature in the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as well as the international
designation of certain areas (e.g., Antarctica
and the deep seabed) and resources (e.g., whales) as “common interests”
of humankind.In so far as the climate is of such crucial “common
concern” to humankind, it follows that there is a responsibility on the
part of countries to protect it. This begs the question of who is
responsible for climate pollution. The answer is a function of each
country’s historical responsibility for the problem, its level of
economic development, and its capability to act. All countries could
suffer from climate change, although it is likely that poor countries
will suffer most, due to their vulnerable geographies and economies. In
addition, it is the economically developed countries of the so-called
global North that have generated the most GHGs since the advent of the
Industrial Revolution, and they have thereby benefited from using the
global atmosphere as a sink for the harmful by-products of their
economic development.
The
developed countries remain the largest sources of greenhouse gases, but
the developing countries are expected to overtake them in coming
decades (Erica, 2009). The United States currently produces more GHGs than any other country, but China is currently in second place and will rival the United States
for output within a generation. Thus, it is essential that the large
developing countries eventually join in limiting their greenhouse gases
(CBO, 2009).
6.1.3 Clean development mechanism (CDM):
CDM
is meant to be a vehicle for transfer of clean technology to the
developing countries. There is the COP -7 decision of periodic review
of regional distribution of CDM projects, but it is likely the LDCs
may not get a fair share of CDM, which is synonymous with FDI (World
Bank report). Once the operation of CDM is left to the market forces
alone, CDM projects will tend to be concentrated in the front-runner
developing countries.
The
CDM is the world’s biggest carbon offsets market (World Bank report).
Theoretically, the CDM allows industrialized countries to support
projects that decrease emissions in developing countries and then use
the resulting emissions reduction credits towards their own reduction
targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Industrialized countries supported the
establishment of the CDM because it would provide them with flexibility
in how they can meet their Kyoto
targets, particularly if domestic reductions turn out to be more costly
than expected. Developing countries supported the CDM because they
would receive funds for “sustainable development” (Gillenwater et al,
2007)
Each
CDM credit – known as a certified emission reduction (CER) – supposedly
represents one metric ton of carbon dioxide not emitted to the
atmosphere. Governments can purchase credits directly or companies can
buy them to comply with national-level legislation or, in Europe,
with the European Union’s (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme. Currently,
over 1000 projects are registered (approved) under the CDM, most
commonly hydropower dams (Barbara haya, 2007)
The
developing countries claim that the CDM is failing miserably and is
undermining the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. In the process, the
CDM is not only failing to support climate change mitigation and
sustainable development in developing countries, but also provides
industrialized countries with a way out of meeting their own domestic
reduction obligations.
The
journal ‘Climatic Change’ in 2007 investigated whether the CDM was
delivering on its sustainable development mandate. But even worse, many
projects in the CDM pipeline have severe negative social and
environmental impacts.
Case study 1:
Sondu Miriu Hydro Power Project, Kenya
IT is a 60 MW hydro project in Kenya;
according to different media news when public protest this hydro power,
resulted in the shooting and possible attempted murder by the Kenyan
police of protest leader Argwings Odera.
The
purpose of protests were to demand that the developers live up to
agreements they had made to the community including to mitigate the
project’s environmental and social impacts. The diversion of thirteen
kilometers of the river was expected to take a main water source away
from 1500 households. Project accounts describe that community members
have suffered eye and respiratory problems from the dust caused from
project construction, and that untreated water released back into the
river had already led to the loss of local fish that were once abundant
in the river. The organized communities also demanded that the project
developers live up to the agreements they had made with the community to
provide jobs at negotiated salary rates, fair compensation for
displacement for over 1000 households, health services, irrigation
facilities and electricity. The discussion of environmental impacts and
stakeholder consultations in the PDD fails to address many of these
concerns. In a case where a community leader’s life was threatened
because he spoke openly about the project in the past, any new
stakeholder consultations cannot be taken as an accurate representation
of stakeholder views, and therefore can not be accepted as fulfilling
the requirements for stakeholder consultations. (Source- Barbara haya,
2007)
6.1.4 Carbon trading
It
is a process of giving compensation for the emission of carbon dioxide
over a specific limit. Polluters are purchasing carbon credits to cancel
out the carbon emissions they produce. The credits, sold by entities
which store more carbon than they make (or produce less carbon than
their cap, and are therefore in 'credit'), are traded on a market very
similar to a futures exchange. The largest market is in the EU. The
companies are trying to become 'carbon neutral', which ultimately means
stabilizing the overall amount of carbon entering the atmosphere in
order to slow climate change (Larry,2008)
Proponents
of offsets claim that third-party certified carbon offsets are leading
to increased investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency, methane
biodigesters and reforestation and avoided deforestation projects and
claim that these alleged effects are the intended goal of carbon
offsets.
Some
environmentalists of developing countries have questioned the
effectiveness of tree-planting projects for carbon offset purposes.
Critics point to the following issues with tree planting projects:
· Timing.
Trees reach maturity over a course of many decades. Project developers
and offset retailers typically pay for the project and sell the promised
reductions up-front, a practice known as "forward selling".
· Permanence.
It is difficult to guarantee the permanence of the forests, which may
be susceptible to clearing, burning, or mismanagement. The
well-publicized instance of the "Coldplay forest," in which a forestry
project supported by the British band Coldplay resulted in a grove of
dead mango trees, illustrates the difficulties of guaranteeing the
permanence of tree-planting offsets.
· Monocultures and invasive species.
In an effort to cut costs, some tree-planting projects introduce
fast-growing invasive species that end up damaging native forests and
reducing biodiversity. However, some certification standards, such as
the Climate Community and Biodiversity Standard require multiple species
plantings.
· Indigenous land rights issues.
Tree-planting projects can cause conflicts with indigenous people who
are displaced or otherwise find their use of forest resources curtailed.
Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
6.2. Binding Targets on Greenhouse Emissions :
Limiting the emissions of developing countries is widely seen as crucial and may be a condition for US
involvement. Yet poor countries are adamant that they will not take on
commitments until the industrialized world, most notably the US,
has shown leadership by cutting emissions (martin khor, 2007). Those
perspectives create conflict between developed and developing countries
especially between united state and India and china.
China on Tuesday promised to "do its best" on fighting climate change but rejected calls that Asia should sign up to binding targets on cutting carbon emissions. Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said China and other Asian nations cannot bear the same responsibility for restricting greenhouse gas emissions as the developed world. The developed world should do more but China will do its best", he said at the closing press conference of the Europe-Asia meeting (ASEM) of foreign ministers in Hamburg that brought together top diplomats from 43 countries (Maythu, 2007).
India
has so far stoutly refused to commit to any mandatory GHG emission
reduction target, arguing that most of the extra GHG in the atmosphere
today has been put there by industrialised countries, so these countries
must reduce their GHG emissions, because:
· Current
emissions are, of course, adding to the problem incrementally. The
accumulated stock of GHGs in the atmosphere is mainly the result of
carbon-based industrial activity in developed countries over the past
two centuries and more. It is for this reason that the UNFCCC
stipulates deep and significant cuts in the emissions of the
industrialized countries as fulfilment of their historic responsibility.
· The
NFCCC itself does not require developing countries to take on any
commitments on reducing their GHG emissions. This was also recognized in
the subsequent Kyoto Protocol which only set targets for developed
countries, the so-called Annex I countries.
· India can, by no stretch of imagination, be described as a so-called “major emitter”. Our per capita CO2 emissions are currently only 1.1 tonnes, when compared to over 20 tonnes for the US
and in excess of 10 tonnes for most OECD countries. Furthermore, even
if we are No. 3 in terms of total volume of emissions, the gap with the
first and second-ranking countries is very large. The US and China
account for over 16% each of the total global emissions, while India
trails with just 4%, despite its very large population and its rapidly
growing economy.
(Source: Public diplomacy division, Ministry of environment)
India
highlighted the growing tension between rich and poor countries over
climate change when it criticized calls for developing countries to curb
greenhouse gas emissions. They believe it would be deeply unfair to
accept emissions limits that are many times less than those of developed
countries (Shyam, 2009)
In this case, the industrial countries e.g. USA try to pressurize the India and china, without taking any permissible measure. They claim that the target of Kyoto protocol is unrealistic, harmful for their economy. (Larson et al, 2007)
Brazil
has argued that the burden of emissions reductions should be
distributed according to countries' cumulative contribution to the rise
in global temperature from 1840 onwards. Actually they push each other
without taking any target.
6.3. Historical responsibility:
Historically,
and even currently, the excessive levels of emission of greenhouse
gases have originated in the industrialized countries. Each inhabitant
of the planet has an equal right to the atmosphere. By have grossly
exceeding their fair share of atmospheric resources, the industrialized
countries have caused climate change. India’s
per capita carbon dioxide emissions are just over 1 tonne, compared to
the OECD average of over 11 tonnes . (ClimeAsia, 14 no). If all
countries had the same per capita emission levels as India, the planet would not have faced a climate change problem, Indian perspectives! Since1950 the USA individually has emitted more than 60 billion tonne of CO2, while India
produces only 5 billion tones. The developed world has caused the
problem with many decades of unsustainable development process. But it
is the poorer countries that will be worst affected.
The
proposed reduction target for developing countries, which is still in
brackets- which in UN jargon means there’s no agreement on it, is 15-30
percent by 2020, measured from a 2000 baseline. India
is under pressure from industrialized countries to reduce its
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15-30 percent by 2020. For
industrialized countries, the proposed target is a 25-40 percent
reduction by 2020 and 75-85 percent by 2050, measured from a 1990
baseline (Shyam, 2009)Industrialized countries have pledged to reduce
their emissions by five percent from 1990 by 2012 though it is unclear
how many of them will meet this mandatory target.
But
industrialized countries have pointed out that India is already the
world’s fourth largest GHG emitter - China is first and the US second -
and climate change cannot be controlled without more effort on the part
of large developing countries like China and India. Indian negotiators
have also said there can be no question of developing countries agreeing
to reduce or even cap GHG emissions unless industrialized countries
fulfill their commitment to help them do so - by providing money and
transferring technology (Shyam, 2009)
Recently the scientists of developed countries claim that the life time of CO2 are
not thousands of years, there are much more evidence prove that this
life time is 50-100 years. According to this study there is no
historical responsibility of developed countries {Wilby, 2008)
6.4. Coast-benefit analysis:
Nordhaus
(1996), one of the prominent neoclassical economist working on ‘global
cost-benefit analysis of climate change’ showed that costs of damages
from global warming are less than the costs of the actions for emissions
abatement necessary to avoid these damages. Bluntly, it was cost
effective to go along with global warming, not to resist (Nordhaus,
1996) . For industrial paradigm, limitations on the emissions of GHGs
could lead to reductions in the levels of industrial output and economic
activity. The cost of compliance to meet the targets outlined by the
Kyoto Protocol could reach ten billion euros per year in Europe
alone (Costa and Usher, 2005). For this reason neoclassical economists
advocate international trading system for GHGs or carbon markets which
they think could reduce the costs of reaching global targets and at the
same time could support industrial development. These are the notion of
the developed countries.
Indian
press characterized this neoclassical approach as economics of
genocide. Deep ecologists comment that the whole exercise seemed to have
the character of a self-fulfilling prophecy in favor of business (Rudolf Bahro, 1994). How the poor nations fight with these notions of developed countries?
6.5. Market and non-market valuation of resources:
Climate
change has different economical and non-economical damages. Some are
measurable by the amount of money and some are not, those are ecological
value. The developed countries are become economically stable on the
basis of capitalism. They think that GDP is the main and only one way to
keep satisfied the citizens. The neoclassical paradigm is very much
compatible with concept of capitalism. The neoclassical paradigm has
adopted utilitarianism as its moral foundation which views human
happiness as the main unit of value, expressed as utility. Its core
ethic is “maximization of the total utility of society” (Nelson, 1991).
Utilitarianism is problematic for the environmental issue such as
climate change as it “perpetuates a false view of humanity’s place in
the world” and does not explain why all the millions of nonhuman species
in the world should be in service to man (Brown, 2005). In the
neoclassical economics framework, non-humans and ecosystems are only
valued to the extent that they affect human utility (Brown, 1998). The
cost-benefit analysis privileges human wellbeing and undervalues the
negative consequences of global warming and this way the preservation of
endangered species only enters the equation in terms of utility to
humans (Brown, 1998). Some deep ecologists see global warming as a
strategic tool for Western industry to shore up its power and usher in a
new era of economic growth (Chatterjee and Finger, 1994). Others see
it as a metaphor.
From
neoclassical perspective, global warming is often cited as a
paradigmatic example of market failure. Dlugolecki (2005) argues that
who can claim for potential damages of global warming such as sea level
rise or loss of biodiversity that has not been crystallized today into
lower property values or lost economic opportunities? He observes loss
of biodiversity as a non-financial damage and shouldn’t be taken into
consideration.
But
the most of the country of developing world are directly depended on
the environment as well as on nature. Climate change at first alter
the environment, and then as a indirect result the nature based people
of developing countries became vulnerable (IPCC;2001). So the market
based perception is the central problem of industrial countries.
CHAPTER 7
Findings and Conclusion
7.1 Key Findings
On
the basis of my previous chapter I got some concrete findings. Climate
is a common resource. We only for our economic development used this
resource destructively and as a result the global climate is changing.
And this rate of changing is far more rapid than anticipated earlier.
But n nation take it as there prime priority. In bellow there are most
important findings of my study are given below:
- Huge amount of green gases e.g. C02 emission is the main causes of climate change.
- Rising of temperature directly correlated to rising amount of C02.
- Temperature rise as well as climate change is unequivocal.
- Only temperature rise can disrupt the earth natural balance.
- Increasing the amount and intensity of recent natural extreme events (flood, drought, cyclone, and heat-wave) are the consequences of climate change.
- Poor people of poor country are more susceptible
- Industrial countries are responsible for climate change.
- Perception of developed countries is ambiguous.
- The success of Kyoto protocol is uncertain.
- All the country developed or developing, at first think there national priority and then about rest of the world.
- Actually the developed nation are not desires to taken any action those have any negative impact on their GDP, because they are the believer of Neo-classical paradigm.
- Developing countries e.g. India, china, first wants economic self sufficiency, and then the take action to mitigate the climate change.
- That means we the people of vulnerable low lying areas lost our land, lost every thing without any mistake of us.
- And finally I like to say that, there is a lack of justice, fairness and the humanity.
7.2 Conclusion:
Climate change is the greatest to challenges the mankind in the 21st
century. The challenges of climate change are multi- dimensional,
immediate as well as long term. The causes are global in nature while
the impacts are felt locally, often extremely. Poor are the most
vulnerable to climate change in developing. According to IPCC, 2001; the
developed as well as the industrial countries are more responsible.
The Kyoto
protocol is one of the most important international treaties, which
want to set some strategy to halt the GHGs emission. But developed
countries are not accepted those. Because, theirs main priority is
development. As a result the poor people become more vulnerable. So
there is a sign of inequity. I think a comprehensive and just solution
of climate change problem requires fairness, justice and equity in
mitigation.
আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
ReplyDeleteআমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না. আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
বয়সঃ ১৯
ReplyDeleteঅনেক একা অনুভব করছি।খুব HOT হতে ইচ্ছা করছে।
আমি PHONE SEX খুব পছন্দ করি।Real SEX ও করি।আমি তোমাদের গরম করতে চাই আমার শরির দিয়ে।আমি Real হট মেয়ে। Just Call Me: 📲01832884997 📞বন্ধুরা আমি তিসা আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার 01832884997📞বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার📲01832884997বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার #01832884997,📞বয়সঃ ১৯
অনেক একা অনুভব করছি।খুব HOT হতে ইচ্ছা করছে।
আমি PHONE SEX খুব পছন্দ করি।Real SEX ও করি।আমি তোমাদের গরম করতে চাই আমার শরির দিয়ে।আমি Real হট মেয়ে। Just Call Me: 📲01832884997 📞বন্ধুরা আমি তিসা আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার 01832884997📞বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার📲01832884997বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার বন্ধুরা আমি শিমু আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন সেক্স ও ইমু সেক্স করি ফোন সেক্স ৩০০টাকা ১ ঘন্টা ইমু সেক্স৫০০ টাকা ১ ঘন্টা আপনারা যদি কেউ সেক্স করতে চান তাহলে ফোন দেন আমার নাম্বার #01832884997,
আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
ReplyDeleteআমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না. আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
💏বন্দুরা সেক্স করতে কল দেও01301241323সেক্স করলে ১০০ ভাগ সেভ থাকবে১বার টাই করে দেখ💏মিথীলা মিতু💏"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি💋💋ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা 💋💋ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।মোবাইল নম্বর===01301241323Mithela mitu call girls mobail number 01301241323phone sex and imo sex korte call dao 01301241323
ReplyDeleteআমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
ReplyDeleteআমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না. আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না।।আমি এখানে নতুন তাই দয়াকরে কেঔ ফালতু পেচাল পারার জন্য ফোন দিবেন না আমি আশা খাতুন। আমার কিছু টাকা দরকার বিনিময় আমি সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ও ভিডিও সেক্স করব।ফোন সেক্স ৫০০,ভিডিও সেক্স -১০০০..আমি রিয়েল সেক্স করি না।।01790479714.বিকাশ করতে না পারলে কেউ ডিস্টাব করবা না
💏বন্দুরা সেক্স করতে কল দেও01301241323সেক্স করলে ১০০ ভাগ সেভ থাকবে১বার টাই করে দেখ💏মিথীলা মিতু💏"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি💋💋ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা 💋💋ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।মোবাইল নম্বর===01301241323Mithela mitu call girls mobail number 01301241323phone sex and imo sex korte call dao 01301241323
ReplyDelete♥ ♥♥আমি মুল্লিকা আক্তার,,, আর আমি(imo)সেক্স করি,,,,,যারা সেক্স করতে চাও তারা [01752565571]এই নম্বরে কল দেও।আর আমি শুধুমাএ ফোন সেক্স করি,,,,আর যারা ফোন সেক্স করতে চান,,,,, শুধুমাএ তারাই কল করবেন।।।।{{{{{♥♥♥কারন আমি সরাসরি সেক্স করি না}}}}}আমি শুধুমাএ প্রবাসিদের সাথে বিশ্বাস্ততার সাথে সেক্স করি। ফোন কল অডিও সেক্স (১ ঘন্টা 500 টকা)। ভিডিও কল (imo) ইমু সেক্স (১ ঘন্টা 1000টকা) । টাকা (bksah) বিকাশ এরমাধ্যমে পাঠাতে হবে । শুধুমাএ যে সকল প্রবাসি ভাই বিকাশ দিতে পারবেন তারাই ফোন দিবেন । {♥♥♥বি:দ্র- ধোকা মানুসের বিশ্বাস নষ্ট করে, সুতারাং আমি মানুসের বিশ্বাস রক্ষা করি । কাজের নিশ্চয়তা imo number (01752565571) সকল প্রবাসি বিকাস বিকাশ দিতে পারবেন তারাই ফোনদিবেন। আমার number (01752565571] আসা করি আমার সাথে সেক্স করলে ১০০% মজা পাবেন।।।১০০% মজা দিয়ে কাজ করাই,,,,আর আমি ঠকবাজি বা ধোকা দেওয়া পছন্দ করি না,,,,তাই সবাই বিশ্বাস এর সাথে কাজ করতে পারেন,,,,,আর যারা বার বার ধোকা খেয়েছেন তারা আমাকে একবার বিশ্বাস করতে পারেন
ReplyDelete❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
ReplyDelete"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথিলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
♥ ♥♥আমি নিসি আক্তার,,, আর আমি(imo)সেক্স করি,,,,,যারা সেক্স করতে চাও তারা [01629744795]এই নম্বরে কল দেও।আর আমি শুধুমাএ ফোন সেক্স করি,,,,আর যারা ফোন সেক্স করতে চান,,,,, শুধুমাএ তারাই কল করবেন।।।।{{{{{♥♥♥কারন আমি সরাসরি সেক্স করি না}}}}}আমি শুধুমাএ প্রবাসিদের সাথে বিশ্বাস্ততার সাথে সেক্স করি। ফোন কল অডিও সেক্স (১ ঘন্টা 500 টকা)। ভিডিও কল (imo) ইমু সেক্স (১ ঘন্টা 1000টকা) । টাকা (bksah) বিকাশ এরমাধ্যমে পাঠাতে হবে । শুধুমাএ যে সকল প্রবাসি ভাই বিকাশ দিতে পারবেন তারাই ফোন দিবেন । {♥♥♥বি:দ্র- ধোকা মানুসের বিশ্বাস নষ্ট করে, সুতারাং আমি মানুসের বিশ্বাস রক্ষা করি । কাজের নিশ্চয়তা imo number (01629744795) সকল প্রবাসি বিকাস বিকাশ দিতে পারবেন তারাই ফোনদিবেন। আমার number (01629744795] আসা করি আমার সাথে সেক্স করলে ১০০% মজা পাবেন।।।১০০% মজা দিয়ে কাজ করাই,,,,আর আমি ঠকবাজি বা ধোকা দেওয়া পছন্দ করি না,,,,তাই সবাই বিশ্বাস এর সাথে কাজ করতে পারেন,,,,,আর যারা বার বার ধোকা খেয়েছেন তারা আমাকে একবার বিশ্বাস করতে পারেন
ReplyDelete❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
ReplyDelete"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথিলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
ReplyDelete❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথীলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।
❤️❤️আমি মিথিলা মিতু💛💛
"আমি টাকার বিনিময়ে ফোন ও ভিডিও সেক্স করি 01301241323
♦♦ফোন সেক্স (অডিও)= ১ঘন্টা=৫০০ টাকা। ( ৩
দিন=১৫০০ টাকা) [১ মাস=৮০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।
♦♦ভিডিও সেক্স ইমু (Imo)সেক্স = ১ ঘন্টা=১৫০০টাকা ( ৩ দিন=৩০০০ টাকা) ।[১ মাস =১৫,০০০ টাকা]
( প্রতিদিন ১ ঘন্টা করে) ।।
## টাকা অগ্রিম বিকাশ করতে হবে।